The Pace of Storage Installations is Mind-Blowing

The Pace of Storage Installations is Mind-Blowing

I have been studying the data on the new installations of grid-scale batteries in an article from Canary Media. I feel like the White Queen in Through the Looking Glass.  She was pleased to say she managed to believe as many as six impossible things before breakfast every day.
 
Based on data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the global amount of total installed grid-scale battery capacity grew by a factor of ten between 2015 and 2020 (from 1 to 10 GW), then it grew another ten times by 2023 (to 100 GW), and will grow another ten times by 2029 (reaching 1,000 GW).  That’s 25% per year growth, occurring mostly in the US and China.  There aren’t many physical assets that have ever grown that fast for that long.  The big railroad and steel boom of the 19th century was not that fast.  Even the oil boom driven by the automobile boom in the 20th century was not that fast.  Both were around 10% per year growth.  Wow!
 
Looking at this another way, the total global installed generating capacity in 2025 was about 9,500 GW.  In 2030, it is expected to be about 12,000 GW in conventional forecasts.  That is 4.7% per year growth. So battery installations will grow 5 times faster than overall generating capacity.  Of course, batteries do not generate energy; they just drink it in from some source (likely to be increasingly from renewables) and then give it back at a later time, but they lose 10-15% of it in the process.  So that means battery storage represents a significant amount of global energy consumption at the scale forecasted.
 
What does all this mean?  First, the stationary battery market would overwhelm the market for EV batteries.  Second, to support this kind of growth, batteries are going to have to get beyond lithium chemistries.  Third, battery prices are going to fall.  This much demand-pull is going to take production to a scale that will drive economies are inevitable.  Fourth, there will be more emphasis on round-trip efficiency to cut the losses.  Fifth, whatever efficiency, production, and cost gains occur in the stationary market will spill over into the EV market.
 
In sum, lots of changes are coming.  Whatever you are assuming about battery types, shapes, costs, and efficiencies right now, you are probably going to be wrong.  If you can manage to believe six impossible things before breakfast.
Gary Simon

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Gary Simon chairs the CleanStart Board, bringing with him a wealth of experience from over 45 years in business, government, and non-profit sectors. Gary applies his deep understanding and experience to support the growth of clean energy initiatives and startups. His work is instrumental in guiding the organization towards achieving its goals of promoting sustainable energy solutions.

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ChicoSTART
RiverCity Bank
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It’s A New World for Getting Investment

It’s A New World for Getting Investment

In the past two years, there has been a shift in what will get an investor to write a check.  It is all coming down to hard evidence of revenue, of a modest customer acquisition cost, of an experienced team, and of being able to grow sales 100% per year for at least a few years.  This applies to companies looking for seed rounds all the way through Series A rounds.  And the bar is even higher if you don’t have AI somewhere in your story.  That is the conclusion in a recent article by an analyst who has been combing through the numbers of founders who actually got checks in the past year or two.  It is worth a read.
 
Ideas are not being funded.  Founders need much more than ten good slides.  Here’s a quote from the article:
 
“The old model prepared founders to pitch a compelling story and a credible team. The new model requires founders to walk in with evidence. Revenue signals. Unit economics. A technical architecture that can scale. A clear answer to the AI question. Most of our [accelerator] programs aren’t built to help founders develop those things. We’re still running pitch or investor prep.”
 
CleanStart has been following this trend for some time. It is one reason we created our Deep Dive Accelerator last year to go beyond the training we had been giving. We are finding more coaches and gathering more insights from successful founders to help founders one-on-one find that evidence.
 
If you are wondering what this could mean for your startup, set up a Zoom call with us to explore what you need to do to succeed in this new environment. It could be one of the more important meetings you will have.
Gary Simon

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Gary Simon chairs the CleanStart Board, bringing with him a wealth of experience from over 45 years in business, government, and non-profit sectors. Gary applies his deep understanding and experience to support the growth of clean energy initiatives and startups. His work is instrumental in guiding the organization towards achieving its goals of promoting sustainable energy solutions.

Sponsors

SMUD
ChicoSTART
RiverCity Bank
Moss Adams logo

Have We Already Crossed Earth’s “Tipping Point”?

Have We Already Crossed Earth’s “Tipping Point”?

In 2009, a group of 28 scientists led by Johan Rockström (a renowned climate scientist- to put his work lightly), proposed a new framework for monitoring Earth’s systems and our outsized influence on them. The group identified nine “planetary life support systems” essential for human well-being, and through them the framework posits that Earth system processes on the planet have boundaries or thresholds that should not be crossed. While groundbreaking, the initial quantification of these boundaries was met with much criticism due to the arbitrary metrics some used at the time. This led to a significant update of the framework and it’s algorithm for quantification of our planet’s wellbeing in 2015, followed by assessments of those boundaries in 2023 and 2025.

As of 2025 we have crossed 7 of the 9 boundaries according to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, you can read their report here. While these boundaries are by no means the end-all-be-all of climate science, this is deeply troubling news. In these next few paragraphs, I hope to explain what this means, provide you with sources for self-education, and elaborate on the lights I see at the end of the tunnel.

What does this mean?
Succinctly as possible; The 9 primary systems that allowed advanced lifeforms to evolve and exist on Earth are damaged or broken. Since 1950, we have so radically accelerated the decline of our environment that we have eclipsed the past 10,000 years.

What can I do with this information?
Like all information, you can disseminate it and use it to inform your peers. Roughly 25% of Americans still deny climate change, and while this may not be the tipping point for everyone, some people might find this source to be the convincing argument they needed. Beyond that, even for those already climate-aware, many prefer specific information over a general sense that “the world is on fire”. We, as a global society, need to implement radical change in the next few decades if we want the planet to be livable. “Radicalizing” surveys and information is necessary for educating and inspiring that change.

What actions can I take?
You can reach out to your local and state representatives to pressure them to make more environmentally conscious decisions. You can take action in your own life to make more sustainable choices, use a reusable water container, avoid individually packaged products, avoid driving when you could bike or use public transport. None of these are “new” solutions, but they are more important now than ever.

If you’re doing something sustainable that you feel needs more coverage or guidance, reach out to us, it’s our job (and our great joy) to support ecologically savvy entrepreneurs.

 

Go check out the 2025 Planetary Health Check. Stay informed, and try to inform others. Thank you for reading, and I hope you continue to do work that matters.
No matter what, keep up the fight. We only have this one planet.

 

Tzvi Weber

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Tzvi Weber is the Data Manager at CleanStart, a nonprofit cleantech hub focused on supporting small businesses, entrepreneurs, and innovators in the clean technology sector. With a background in data management, Tzvi plays a crucial role in organizing and analyzing data to help CleanStart achieve its mission of promoting sustainability and clean technology. His expertise contributes to the organization's efforts to foster growth and innovation in the clean energy industry.

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ChicoSTART
RiverCity Bank
Bakertilly

The Intelligent Grid: From Smart to Sentient

The Intelligent Grid: From Smart to Sentient

A Synthesis of the Thoughts of Daveed Sidhu  

Our friend Daveed Sidhu is a prolific writer and provocative thought leader on the future of the electric grid and what it would mean for new business opportunities, new products, and new approaches to regulation.  He publishes his work on his LinkedIn page.  We have undertaken to summarize his latest thoughts as a way to introduce more people to them, and in order to stimulate discussion and debate.  

We also asked local expert Peter Mackin, who has hands-on experience with the grid, to comment on Daveed’s thoughts and incorporated his comments as highlighted sections.

The Core Problem

The grid is becoming more intelligent—and less effective. That contradiction is in the signals we’re ignoring. The constraint isn’t hardware — it’s data quality, coordination, and decision speed.  We’ve digitized the grid—but we haven’t fully operationalized that intelligence.  The grid has shifted from linear infrastructure to an interactive platform that must not only sense but anticipate.  That requires some major investment and a commitment to major change.

Data Quality: The Hidden Flaws in the Foundation

Despite billions invested in smart meters, sensors, and analytics, the data feeding these systems is often unreliable. Common problems include:

  • Missing or incomplete meter reads
  • Timestamp inconsistencies across systems
  • Communication latency and packet loss
  • Firmware variations across device fleets
  • Inconsistent data models between platforms
Peter Mackin:  I am not sure these issues are that big of a deal, especially when it comes to real-time operations.  Utility-grade systems do not suffer from these issues to any large extent.

These are not edge cases—they are systemic conditions across most utility environments.  At scale, across millions of endpoints, these issues become structural. Every downstream system — forecasts, optimization engines, reliability tools — inherits this uncertainty. The next phase of grid modernization won’t be defined by more sensors, but by robust data architecture, standardized models, telemetry validation, and rigorous data governance.

A Changed Operating Environment

The grid now must accommodate:

  • Rapid EV growth and rooftop solar proliferation
  • Large, fast-arriving loads from data centers and AI infrastructure
  • Climate volatility that undermines historical planning assumptions

These demands require faster, more precise operational intelligence. Without trustworthy data as a foundation, even sophisticated AI becomes an expensive, fragile overlay.

Peter Mackin:  Faster, more precise operational intelligence is not needed.  Current operational intelligence is more than adequate.  What is needed is better forecasting tools to predict where loads and resources will be so that, when these loads and resources want to connect, the grid will be ready for them.  This problem is a planning problem, not an operations problem.

From Smart to Sentient

A smart grid reacts; a sentient grid anticipates not sentient in a biological sense, but in its ability to continuously interpret, learn, and act on system-wide signals. The traditional reactive model — meters report after the fact, outages are addressed after customer calls, operators rebalance after congestion appears — is no longer adequate in a system defined by fluctuating DER output and volatile demand.

Peter Mackin:  The grid does not operate this way.  Transmission outages are detected in less than one second.  If remedial actions are needed, they are automatic and typically implemented in less than a second.  Distribution outages will be detected well before a customer has a chance to call in due to the presence of smart meters at every customer location.  Once the power goes out, each smart meter sends outage information back to the utility’s distribution operations center.  In less than a minute, the utility should have a handle on the size and geographic extent of the outage.

Congestion is mitigated in the day ahead and “real-time” (5 min. to 15 min ahead of time) markets before it can occur.  If overloads or other reliability concerns occur after an outage, system operators have up to 30 minutes to rebalance the system and restore it to a state that will be secure even after the worst next outage occurs. For the worst outages, operating procedures are in place to guide the system operators in restoring the system to a secure operating state.

A sentient grid continuously synthesizes real-time telemetry, weather intelligence, market signals, asset health data, and customer behavior to ask: “What is about to happen — and what should be done now?” This enables:

  • Predictive reliability — failures identified before they cascade
Peter Mackin: This step is already being done via tools such as RTCA (Real Time Contingency Analysis).
  • Unlocked capacity — real-time awareness reveals hidden headroom in existing assets, deferring capital projects
  • Active customer participation — DERs and flexibility orchestrated proactively
  • Orchestrated control rooms — operators supervise automated responses instead of chasing alarms
Peter Mackin:  This step has already been ordered by FERC in Order 881.

The Grid as Platform

The grid is evolving from linear infrastructure (wires, transformers, power quality controls) into an interactive platform, much like Amazon in retail or Apple in mobile. It must now coordinate rooftop solar, storage, EV charging, demand response, microgrids, and real-time markets. The critical paradox: the system in many regions isn’t short on generation capacity — it’s short on coordination capacity and visibility. That raises the question of who truly owns and controls grid data–and who should?  As a platform, the grid would be an open system with thousands or millions of players using data and controls to provide fee-based services.  

To realize this platform model, utilities must invest in:

  • Interoperability standards across OT and IT
  • Open, API-first digital ecosystems rather than closed silos
  • Cloud-native, scalable architectures
Peter Mackin:  Any application that is critical to the security and safe operation of the grid is highly unlikely to be cloud-based.
  • Event-driven data pipelines for real-time coordination

This also demands transformation along four dimensions: architectural (open ecosystems), regulatory (recognizing customers as active participants), business model (valuing flexibility alongside capital deployment), and cultural (from asset operator to ecosystem coordinator).

Decision Latency: The Next Major Constraint

The next constraint is not data availability—it is the time between signal and action.  Decision latency appears as:

  • DERs are responding slower than grid conditions require
  • Demand response signals arriving after peak events are underway
  • Balancing decisions based on stale data
  • Operators manually bridging gaps between disparate systems

Addressing this requires three shifts:

  1. Centralized → distributed intelligence: move decision-making to the edge
  2. Data collection → data synchronization: ensure systems share a consistent, current view
  3. Monitoring → autonomous coordination: enable systems to respond autonomously, with operators in supervisory roles

Congestion: The Real Bottleneck

The grid’s growing constraint isn’t generation or wires — it’s the ability to move electricity where it’s needed, when it’s needed. Evidence is already visible: renewable curtailment despite available capacity, rising locational marginal prices, and interconnection queues stretching years. Today’s congestion is driven by localized load pockets (data centers, AI infrastructure), variable DER injections, and rapid electrification outpacing traditional planning.  Are we building physical infrastructure too quickly because we underutilize what already exists? Do we underestimate how much improvement could be made by engaging more creative, entrepreneurial minds?

Congestion is more than economic inefficiency — it is a compounding reliability risk, leaving operators with fewer degrees of freedom when conditions change.

Peter Mackin:  Congestion is only an economic issue.  It is not a reliability risk.  Congestion occurs because the least cost resources are constrained behind a transmission limitation.  However, other resources are always available to meet the demand, albeit at a higher cost.  The system is planned out for 10 years (and beyond) to have adequate transmission, distribution, and generation to meet anticipated demand for all future years in the planning horizon.

Building more infrastructure alone won’t solve this fast enough; transmission expansion takes decades while demand accelerates now. The answer lies in better orchestration of existing assets through real-time visibility, automated decision-making, dynamic coordination of flexible resources, and extensive monetization of flexibility markets.  

This leads to the question of whether regulatory models built for centralized generation and closed operation of the grid can support a distributed, digital, and interactive grid. Would that mean more performance-based regulation rather than the ever-more complex rules and requirements coming from today’s regulators?  Would this be an even bigger challenge than deregulating generation?

Data-Rich but Context-Poor

The grid doesn’t suffer from a lack of visibility—it suffers from a lack of meaning. The grid sees, measures, and records — but doesn’t consistently listen. Listening means interpretation:

  • A voltage fluctuation may signal impending equipment stress
  • A transformer heating pattern may be an early failure warning
  • A sudden load shift may reveal new behavior like clustered EV charging
Peter Mackin:  Transmission level transformers are already monitored for DGA (Dissolved Gas Analysis), which can detect impending failure of the transformer.  The transmission grid already has spares available that can be used to replace a transformer that may be on the verge of failure while a replacement transformer is procured.

Another way utilities can get information on new EV charging installations is from the local permitting authorities.  Utilities already get this information for rooftop solar installations.

More data without interpretation leads to information overload — cluttered dashboards and alarm-flooded control rooms. AI and edge intelligence close this gap, not by replacing human expertise but by amplifying it: detecting patterns across noisy datasets, prioritizing anomalies, correlating operational data with external factors, and learning from historical incidents. The goal is a grid that evolves from monitoring to understanding, and from reacting to anticipating.  The consequence is much less direct human governance in favor of human-supervised autonomous control.  Is that a welcome or a frightening change?

The Path Forward

The utilities and grid operators that lead will be those that:

  • Invest as heavily in data integrity and governance as in hardware
  • Build cloud-native, event-driven, interoperable digital architectures
  • Embrace edge intelligence and distributed decision-making
  • Reframe their identity from infrastructure providers to platform orchestrators
  • Align regulatory, business, and cultural models with an open, participatory energy ecosystem

The grid is becoming a sentient platform and an interactive marketplace of electrons. The question isn’t whether this transformation will happen — it’s whether today’s utilities and grid operators are prepared to listen, anticipate, and orchestrate at the speed required for the grid to understand itself in time to act. 

Gary Simon

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Gary Simon chairs the CleanStart Board, bringing with him a wealth of experience from over 45 years in business, government, and non-profit sectors. Gary applies his deep understanding and experience to support the growth of clean energy initiatives and startups. His work is instrumental in guiding the organization towards achieving its goals of promoting sustainable energy solutions.

Sponsors

SMUD
ChicoSTART
RiverCity Bank
Moss Adams logo