Each year, we publish bold predictions on clean energy, climate policy, and technology markets. For 2025, we decided to be especially fearless. The result? A humbling year.

Out of 10 clean energy predictions for 2025, we:

• Got 3 correct
• Earned half credit on 2
• Missed 5 entirely

That makes 2025 our weakest performance yet in these annual forecasts. Accountability matters, so here’s a full breakdown of where we were right, wrong, and surprised. And yes — our 2026 clean energy predictions are coming next month.

---

1. U.S. Lithium Prices Would Fall Below $8,000/MT

Result: Wrong

Battery-grade lithium prices declined modestly in 2025 but never came close to our forecast. Prices stayed above $11,500/MT by year’s end.

What happened:

• EV demand remained strong in the U.S. and globally
• Lithium supply additions lagged despite announcements of new deposits
• New projects did not translate into near-term market supply

Key takeaway: The lithium market continues to be constrained by long development timelines, keeping prices elevated.

---

2. Battery Prices Would Drop Below $90/kWh

Result: Wrong

Battery prices barely moved in 2025. According to Bloomberg, costs declined just $2–3/kWh from the $115/kWh average in 2024. In China, prices hovered near $100/kWh due to sustained demand.

Wild card: U.S. tariffs.
If tariffs are overturned by the Supreme Court, a sharper price correction could still be ahead.

---

3. The Nuclear–AI Data Center Connection Would Fade

Result: Half Credit

AI data center investment surged, and so did electricity demand — up 22% in 2025 and projected to triple by 2030. Nuclear power, however, has yet to deliver on its promises.

Key developments:

• Palisades Nuclear Plant restart planned (but not confirmed) for late 2025
• Three Mile Island Unit One restart targeted for 2027 with DOE loan support
• Google exploring solar alternatives to nuclear for Iowa data centers
• New greenfield nuclear and fusion projects remain unproven

Trend to watch: Data centers increasingly favor onsite power, battery storage, and flexible energy management over nuclear timelines.

---

4. Carbon Pricing in North America Would Be Volatile

Result: Wrong

Carbon prices stabilized instead of swinging wildly.

• Prices peaked at $42/ton CO₂ in early 2024
• Fell to $26–30/ton in 2025
• Now hovering around $28/ton with low volatility

Impact:

• Climate Investment Fund revenue dropped from $4.3B (2024) to $3.4B (2025)
• LCFS credits peaked at $78, dropped to $42, briefly rebounded, and settled near $50

---

5. 30% of New Vehicle Sales Would Be ZEVs

Result: Wrong

Zero-emission vehicles accounted for 29.1% of California sales in Q3 2025, but full-year sales are expected to land just above 25%.

Why the miss:

• Slower start early in the year
• Total light-duty vehicle sales declined slightly
• Federal tax credit phase-out pulled demand forward unevenly

---

6. Solar Construction Costs Would Fall to 55% of 2014 Levels

Result: Correct

Solar continues its long-term cost decline.

Year	Cost per kW Installed	% of 2014
2014	$3,124	100%
2023	$1,968	63%
2024 (Q3)	$1,779	57%

Data suggests 2025 costs may fall below our 55% target, reinforcing solar’s cost leadership.

---

7. California Would Miss Its 250,000 EV Charger Goal

Result: Half Credit

We correctly predicted the trend — but were too optimistic.

• 201,180 public chargers installed by Sept 2025
• Roughly 22,000 added in 7 months
• Year-end total likely closer to 213,000–215,000

Governor Newsom’s target remains out of reach, and installation pace is slowing.

---

8. Global Carbon Trading Would Be Announced (But Not Launched)

Result: Correct

No formal global carbon market was announced in 2025. Progress stalled after COP29, with limited movement at COP30.

Contributing factors:

• Global economic uncertainty
• U.S. withdrawal from climate negotiations
• Ongoing disputes over market rules

Outlook: Global carbon trading feels inevitable — but delayed. Unfortunately, this weakens the chances of limiting warming below 2°C, with projections now closer to 2.6°C.

---

9. SMUD Would Announce a Major Geothermal Expansion

Result: Wrong

Despite optimism early in the year, geothermal expansion stalled.

• AB 527 passed to ease exploratory drilling
• Governor Newsom vetoed the bill
• Political and community resistance increased

Momentum shifted away from geothermal in 2025.

---

10. Offshore Wind Would Grow Globally — But Stall in California

Result: Correct (But Underestimated)

Offshore wind adoption slowed dramatically worldwide. In the U.S., both large and mid-scale offshore wind projects struggled amid federal policy shifts.

California’s offshore wind ambitions were hit particularly hard, with multiple projects delayed or paused.

---

Final Thoughts: What 2025 Taught Us

2025 reminded us that energy markets are shaped as much by politics and permitting as by technology and economics. While we missed the mark more than usual, several long-term trends remain clear:

• Clean energy demand is still growing
• Infrastructure timelines matter more than forecasts
• Policy risk continues to dominate outcomes

Stay tuned for our 2026 clean energy predictions — coming next month.

From Hypothesis to High-Growth Startup: Building Resolv Rebates

In our latest CleanStart Perspective, I had the chance to sit down with Sam Ruderman, co-founder of Resolv Rebates, to dig into his entrepreneurial journey of how he validated his idea, built early traction, and leveraged relationships to launch one of the most interesting clean-energy startups I’ve seen in a while.

From the first minute of our conversation, Sam’s enthusiasm for the energy transition was obvious. As he put it, “We started Resolv to make it way easier, way more accessible to leverage clean energy incentives.” He’s not wrong; most people have no idea how many rebates are out there or how complicated they can be to access.

Understanding the Lived Pain Point

One thing I really appreciated about Sam’s story is that Resolv didn’t come from a whiteboard brainstorming session. It came from years of lived experience. Early in his career, he was the guy contractors called when they were buried in paperwork.

As he told me, “My first job out of college… a lot of my job was just walking contractors through the process of finding the programs and understanding them… and then I’d actually do the rebate paperwork for them.” Pen on paper, PDFs, missing documents, you know, the classic mess.

That experience turned into the hypothesis behind Resolv: if you can automate all the frustrating parts, you unlock more clean energy projects, faster.

The Power of Network and Relationships

For entrepreneurs, your network isn’t just nice to have, it’s part of your traction and where you can build a team. Resolv is a perfect example.

Sam spent six years building relationships across utilities, local governments, agencies, and contractors. And when the moment came to test his idea, those same people opened doors: A year or so before Resolv, Sam met Shane Smith, who would become his Co-founder, and connected over how much money was getting left on the table by contractors.

One day, Sam got a call from Shane saying he had given his employer notice and they were going to start a company.

“I was like, holy smokes, I want to make sure that this is real for him and real for me.So, the plan became… my plan became, start calling contractors, right? Like, I gotta really do the validation.”

He set out to conduct customer interviews and validate their hypotheses. It wasn’t easy. Some days he would reach out to 20 contractors and get no response. Eventually it paid off with one contractor practically demanding a solution and saying they would pay.

These early conversations also revealed unexpected opportunities, like adapting Resolv’s contractor platform for utilities and public agencies. That came directly from someone in his network sharing a California Decarbonization email listserv discussion of industry professionals where a large utilities director of programs fantasized about “a solution that would find all the rebates, qualify them, do the paperwork for the contractor, send the homeowner whatever they need”… which is what Resolv does.

Validating → Selling

When I talk with founders, I often remind them that building a company starts with validating your assumptions. Sam did exactly that. Before Resolv had paying customers, it had partners—contractors who helped test, break, and improve the earliest prototypes.

“You can never get enough customer or partner feedback,” he told me. “Once we started actually selling… that’s when you really learn.”

Their early builds were shaped by five core contractors, then by beta testers across California. Today, most contractors can submit multiple rebates in just minutes rather than hours. That’s real validation.

Today, Resolv works with 85–90 contractors, has a growing team, and is preparing to expand nationally. As Sam shared, “It’s really cool right now to be able to say [revenue] is going well…”

That kind of momentum doesn’t come from luck—it comes from deep problem understanding, a validated solution, and a strong network.

🎥 If you missed the conversation, watch the full discussion on CleanStart’s YouTube channel.
🔔 Follow and subscribe to CleanStart to hear more stories from founders who are shaping the clean-energy economy across the Central Valley.

In this month’s CleanStart Perspectives webinar, Executive Director Thomas Hall hosted an in-depth conversation with three leaders shaping how climate innovators access capital in California: Rosa Hilmarsdottir Cucicea of River City Bank, and George McDaniel and Tamara Kohne of the Bay Area Air Quality Management District’s Climate Tech Finance program.

Together, they provided a rare look behind the scenes at how banks, public agencies, and startups collaborate to get emerging clean technologies deployed in the real world — and what founders must prepare for long before they walk into a lender’s office.

The Rise of “Climate Lenders” in California

Thomas opened the conversation by asking Rosa Cucicea to explain how banks like River City Bank developed specialized clean energy divisions. Rosa emphasized that while “a lender is a lender,” climate finance requires deeper expertise: “River City Bank happens to have a clean energy division… we focus on providing capital to clean energy-related companies.”

She noted that climate projects carry complexities not found in ordinary business lending: “There are other types of risks… technology risks, pricing and contractual risks… especially in project finance.”

For founders, this means lenders need clarity, data, and a grounded business plan.

How Climate Tech Finance De-Risks Early-Stage Companies

While banks evaluate risk, the Climate Tech Finance (CTF) program helps reduce it — especially for companies not yet “bankable.”

Tamara explained how the program begins with environmental and technical screening: “We confirm the technology indeed reduces greenhouse gas emissions… and that it’s past the demonstration phase.”

Once technical eligibility is confirmed, George and the finance leads step in: “Most small businesses only think about money about five minutes before they need it… we translate. We assess the strengths and weaknesses.”

CTF’s loan-guarantee structure reduces bank exposure: “It’ll cover up to 80% of the loan amount in case there is a loss… it reduces the exposure for the bank.” – Rosa

This makes it possible for banks to fund companies they otherwise couldn’t — especially those on the edge of being “bankable.”

What Founders Must Prepare Before Talking to a Lender

The panelists agreed: founders should focus on fundamentals, not flair.

Rosa emphasized the need for clear communication: “Have a good executive summary… what your company does, what your revenue stream is, what makes you different, and how you’re going to repay the loan.”

George reinforced the power of simplicity: “If you can summarize your technology, your dreams, your expectations, and your needs in one page… you’ll be ahead of 80–90% of people who go to a lender.”

Founders with only prototype revenue may still be early for lending — but validating customers and tightening financials can open the door over time.

A Proven Model: Big Impacts, Low Defaults

George highlighted the program’s strong track record: “$50 million disbursed… 23–24 deals… another 50 or 60 in the pipeline… and only one loss.”

Rosa added that companies often grow significantly after receiving support: “One of these companies could become very large… I love to get updates… six months from now, a year from now.”

Their collaborative approach is showing real results — for businesses, communities, and emissions reductions.

What This Means for Clean Tech Startups

If you’re a founder working in climate tech — hardware, software, mobility, energy, water, materials, agriculture — the message is clear:

• Engage early
• Bring clarity, not complexity
• Show traction, even small wins
• Understand your financial story

As George put it: “Everybody gets a plan.”
You don’t have to be perfect — you just have to be prepared. If you’re developing a climate solution, reach out to the experts from this session, especially Clean Tech Finance. They welcome outreach from founders.

If you want help preparing your materials or deciding when to approach lenders, CleanStart can help.

🎥 Watch the full webinar on CleanStart’s YouTube channel

There are some big changes coming next year in commercial building design for more energy efficiency. On September 25, we held a MeetUp to consider what other changes might be in the works, based on some challenges that were launched two decades ago to push the frontiers of what is possible. First, here is some background.

On January 1, 2026, the most recent Title 24 standards for new commercial buildings in California will go into effect, based on the 2025 Energy Code adopted by the California Energy Commission. Key updates include a greater emphasis on electric heat pump technology for space and water heating, requirements for electric-ready commercial kitchens, updated solar and battery storage standards for specific assembly buildings, and enhanced ventilation standards for improved air quality. New commercial properties must also meet rigorous standards for building envelope insulation and air sealing, high-efficiency lighting with automated controls, and optimized HVAC and ventilation systems.

These new standards are an echo of the similar changes made in Title 24 for residential buildings adopted by the Energy Commission in 2022, effective in 2023. These standards required new residential buildings to incorporate features like solar PV systems, battery storage readiness, and efficient heat pumps to improve energy efficiency and support electrification. These standards strengthen ventilation, improve insulation, and promote the use of demand-responsive technologies, with the overall goal of achieving California’s carbon neutrality by midcentury.

The more fundamental advances in making buildings more sustainable was the Living Building Challenge (LBC) launched in 2006 by the Green Building Council and now promoted by the Living Futures Institute. The idea was to move building design and operation from minimizing harm to the environment to one of making a positive contribution to the environment. LBC consists of seven performance categories, or “Petals”: Place, Water, Energy, Health + Happiness, Materials, Equity, and Beauty. Each Petal is subdivided into Imperatives. It goes far beyond what is required to get a building a LEED certification.

Here in Sacramento we have one of the 34 buildings around the world that was certified as meeting the Living Building Challenge. It is the headquarters of the ArchNexus architectural firm and is located at 10th and R Streets across from the Fox and Goose pub. We invited Erica McBride the operations manager for the building to give us an update on what has been learned from this Challenge.

ArchNexus now has offices in Salt Lake City as well as Sacramento, in a much larger 30,000 square foot building. They have 95 professionals and are involved with close to 50 projects, mostly in the Western US. The projects have mostly been in consulting and design of sustainable features for buildings.

For their two headquarters buildings, they have achieved the goals around producing more energy than they use and in providing a comfortable working environment. The economic justification for these features was made easier with the dramatic uptick in utility prices recently with more estimated for the future. The use of natural lighting and having doors and windows that open to let in the outside air turned out to be key ways to reduce electricity use, more than expected.

In contrast, the features surrounding the capture of rainwater, reuse of greywater, and minimizing disposal of blackwater have involved a lot of plumbing and innovations that have needed more maintenance than expected. Also some innovations were needed to meet the goal of producing more water than was consumed. In general the water saving features have been hard to justify economically because in the West water is so inexpensive, ironically.

Innovations that come from challenges like the ones for living buildings often drift back into standards for all new buildings, so this is an area to watch. Take a look at Erica’s slides here. 

Please join us for our future MeetUps where we explore a wide range of topics concerning opportunities to create new companies and new products to see innovations spread.

Every quarter, Sacramento State’s Carlsen Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship hosts The Startup Challenge—a fast-paced, hands-on competition where teams build a company from scratch in just one weekend. Running in parallel with the Traction Cohort for existing ventures, the Challenge pushes participants to learn entrepreneurship by doing, not by talking about doing.
This fall’s event ran from Friday, September 26th through Sunday, September 28th, and drew more than 80 participants from across the region. Teams were formed Friday night, each with up to seven members, and had just 48 hours to test assumptions, validate markets, and build momentum.

A few years back, I won first place in the Carlsen Center’s Traction Cohort with my startup Purpurātus. The experience completely reshaped how I approach customer discovery. This time, I wanted to start from square one with a brand-new idea.
On Friday night, I pitched Site.AR — a service using image-to-3D modeling and existing blueprints to digitize heritage sites and monuments. Visitors could explore them in browser or VR/AR, with proceeds shared with those who maintain the real-world sites. It was ambitious and deeply personal — but no one joined the team.
Instead, I found myself with a group developing the Moonlight Design Collective, a design agency that hires recent graduates and architecture students to offer professional design services under mentorship, at a fraction of standard market rates. The idea: create work opportunities for new designers who are struggling due to lack of a portfolio, while providing affordable creative solutions to local businesses.

By Saturday morning, every team had their goals and business assumptions mapped out — and then the real work began. From 8 a.m. to 10 p.m., participants fanned out across Sacramento to test their ideas in the wild.
Collectively, over 500 customer interviews were conducted that weekend, testing more than 30 different business assumptions. Our team discovered that while potential clients were drawn to Moonlight’s low cost, they were equally — if not more — motivated by the opportunity to support local students and universities. It was a pleasant surprise, and it changed how we framed the value of our service. It was fun to have an excuse to go outside and do some light interviews with excited cofounders, and it was really fulfilling to see them get their first “a-ha” moments in person. It was really rewarding for everyone who went out.
Sunday was all about refining presentations and preparing for the final pitches. Each team had just three minutes to present their findings, followed by three minutes of questions from the judges.

After an evening of twenty presentations, the Moonlight Design Collective was announced as the first-place winner of the Startup Challenge. We worked really hard on the presentation, so I was really stoked to be rewarded for that! Most of the groups did fantastic, but I think we had an extra edge due to my experience coaching startups on their pitching/presenting.
For me, the experience was a powerful reminder that even as a returning participant, there’s always more to learn. I realized I’d grown a little too comfortable with my own assumptions — and this Challenge pulled me back to what matters most: testing ideas in the real world.
Entrepreneurship is about learning, iterating, and never letting yourself get complacent.

It was an absolute blast. I gave it my all, and couldn’t be happier with the result. The team I worked with will be continuing the project, so I know the prize money and in-kind resources are going to a great cause.

 

CleanStart is proud to partner with the Carlsen Center in fostering the next generation of innovators. While our primary focus is on clean tech and sustainable startups, we’ll never spurn an entrepreneurial spirit. Events like the Startup Challenge nurture that spark — giving emerging founders the tools, network, and confidence they need to take the next step, no matter the sector.
These are the programs that make Sacramento’s innovation ecosystem thrive.
I’ll be participating in these startup challenges more regularly, and would love to see you at the next one!