Where is the EV Charging?

Where is the EV Charging?

California leads the Nation in EV adoption. Over 40% of all EVs sold are sold in California. Much of this results from ambitious targets and zero emissions goals. But where is the charging to support them? A critical bottleneck in EV adoption is the availability of charging infrastructure. We have seen significant installs of DC fast chargers but not Level 2 chargers, which are necessary for day-to-day charging needs. It appears California is falling short of its goals for Level 2 charging infrastructure, leaving EV drivers struggling to find convenient charging options.

The California Energy Commission (CEC) has set an ambitious goal of installing 250,000 Level 2 EVSE (Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment) chargers by 2025. This goal was established in response to Governor Gavin Newsom’s Executive Order N-79-20, which mandates that all new passenger cars and trucks sold in California be zero-emission by 2035. The CEC estimated California would need at least 1.5 million charging ports to meet the demand for electric vehicles. The CEC has approved $2.9 Billion for ZEV Infrastructure.

However, as of 2022, the number of Level 2 EVSE chargers in California is significantly lower than the CEC’s target. According to the CEC’s dashboard, there were only 71,599 Level 2 EVSE. This is less than one-third of the CEC’s target for 2025, and a significant shortfall from the 1.5 million charging ports required to support the expected growth in EVs.

This lack of charging infrastructure has a profound impact on EV adoption. With a limited number of Level 2 chargers, drivers often face long wait times and difficulty finding available chargers. This creates a significant barrier, as range anxiety and charging inconvenience are among the biggest concerns for prospective EV buyers. It also affects the state’s efforts to reduce carbon emissions.

To address this issue, the CEC is taking steps to accelerate the deployment of Level 2 charging infrastructure. In July 2021, the CEC approved a $384 million plan to fund the installation of 38,000 Level 2 charging ports across California. The Federal Government is providing support too. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) has $7.5 Billion for charging infrastructure. These plans aim to expand the existing charging network and make EV charging more accessible to Californians.

Much of the State funding has been allocated. The CEC reports over 100,000 charging stations have been funded but are not in the total counts. Counting the funded charges, California is on the path to reaching its ambitious goals. However, based on the CEC’s own dashboard, California falls significantly short. Hopefully, with the CEC’s recent funding plan and private investment, California will be able to rapidly expand its charging infrastructure and support the growing number of electric vehicles on its roads.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Thomas is the Executive Director of CleanStart. Thomas has a strong background in supporting small businesses, leadership, financial management and is proficient in working with nonprofits. He has a BS in Finance and a BA in Economics from California State University, Chico. Thomas has a passion for sustainability and a commitment to supporting non-profits in the region.

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Solar4America Making A Splash Bringing PV Manufacturing to the US

Solar4America Making A Splash Bringing PV Manufacturing to the US

With remarkable speed, the Sacramento region now hosts what appears to be the second-largest US manufacturer of solar PV modules. In June 2022 Solar4America began production of monocrystal silicon-based panels (the most efficient kind) at McClellan Business Park, moving into the facility originally built for another potential solar manufacturer, CSUN Solar, in 2017. CSUN filed for bankruptcy in January 2021. SPI Energy moved quickly to make a commitment to the facility, assigning it to the Solar4America installation subsidiary it had recently acquired from Peterson Dean Roofing Company, and moving the company headquarters to it from Santa Clara.

It quickly added equipment to begin manufacturing panels in June 2022 and recently added a more state-of-the-art process line with $10 million in new equipment. Take a virtual tour here. They now employ about 150 people and produce 700 MW of panels per year. They plan to add a third 550 MW capacity line in their existing 139,000 square foot building, and then grow into an adjacent 56,000 square foot space with room to add a fourth and a fifth line. That would complete their growth plan for Sacramento, with a capacity of producing 2200-2600 MW of panels if they ran 24/7, with close to 500 employees.Facility

They are taking advantage of the federal incentives favoring panels built in large part in the USA. President Biden extended by four years to 2026 President Trump’s 30% import tariff on panels imported from China, where over 70% of all panels are now produced. In addition, the Inflation Reduction Act not only extended the 30% investment tax credit and production tax credit but also provided a bonus 10% adder for panels meeting domestic production criteria. The Infrastructure Act provides an incentive amounting to about 4 cents/kWh for US-made solar modules. They see this “Made in America” angle as a big boost to their prospects, and their sales pipeline is showing its reality. They are now making 410 Watt and 550 Watt solar panels with peak efficiencies in excess of 21%. They believe that will drive above-average profitability—and at prices that make them very attractive.
They are on their way to making another move—toward more vertical integration in the US. They currently source their source silicon wafers from China. They would be eligible for further federal incentives if they would instead use US-made wafers. Recently they created a subsidiary, SEM Wafertech, to establish a high-efficiency production line for wafers and hired a world-class CTO to run it. Likely that unit would be based in South Carolina.
In our opinion, they are also positioned to make an important advance that will lead them to be able to push their solar conversion efficiency by close to 30%. There has been a lot written lately about inexpensive perovskite materials for solar cells. Think of them as a spray-on coating. Alone they are not so efficient, but if layered on top of a compatible crystalline solar module, they can capture light otherwise not used and allow the rest to penetrate to the underlying cell. There are a number of companies pursuing this path and looking for crystalline silicon solar panel partners. The manufacturing process chosen by Solar4America could be very compatible with this kind of production. Clearly, getting more kWh per panel by boosting efficiency creates a whole new ballgame in cost/kWh competition.Facility

But the story is a lot more interesting than just what is going on at McClellan Park. The parent company SPI Energy has a long-term connection to Sacramento and is doing many things beyond manufacturing solar panels. The company actually was founded in 2006 in Roseville as Solar Power, Inc. As a way to get an edge, it was sourcing panels from China, one of the pioneers in doing so, and actually set up its own manufacturing line there in 2008. It was financing and installing panels throughout the state (anyone remembers Yes! Solar?), but it was a small fish in a booming market. The founder, Steve Kircher, brought in a Chinese investor, Denton Peng, in 2011, to get the money to go big. Peng owned a panel manufacturing and installation business in China and had been developing modest (a few MW to a few hundred MW) solar farms around the globe that were sold to investors once finished. That business evolved. Peng sold off his China assets in 2018 to focus on developing more solar farms outside China, but these were not building value very quickly. They did not give up that business, though. SPI still owns about 225 MW of solar projects in the US, Asia, and Europe, and is pursuing a 250+ MW pipeline of new projects.

SPIClearly, Peng was “bitten by the bug,” and wanted to do more in clean energy, recasting SPI as “Smart Power Innovation.” As a result, he started building a global cleantech conglomerate now referred to as SPI Groups. In 2015 he acquired 80% of SolarJuice, the leading wholesale distributor of PV products in Australia. He moved the solar installation business acquired from Petersen Dean into SolarJuice, giving it US roots as well. SolarJuice was made the parent of Solar4America. Now SPI is planning a partial spinoff of just under 50% of SolarJuice to raise money to keep growing the sales/installation business as well as PV manufacturing. The offering could raise as much as $19 million, and resolve concerns about whether the company had enough cash available to keep operating. The new stock would trade under the symbol SJA in the US if the offering closes. It would also trade in Australia where SolarJuice remains headquartered.

Peng acquired Phoenix Motor Cars in 2022 (partially IPO’d as PEV). Phoenix originated in Anaheim producing medium-duty EV trucks and buses in 2003. That business expanded into all-electric forklifts, some of which are at the McClellan plant. Now it is pursuing a nifty all-electric crew cab truck under the brand name EdisonFuture. It has a solar PV rooftop and a cool unfolding cover on the bed that adds more PV area. Those vehicles will likely be produced in Greenville, South Carolina.

Phoenix also has an agreement to develop bidirectional chargers for its vehicles, a feature likely to be much in demand. It has a line of portable battery products under the brand Romeo Power. Late in 2022, it acquired a long-time Sacramento fuel cell company, Altergy, to give it a foothold in using hydrogen for long-duration storage for solar projects. And for fun, SPI created a rugged fat tire e-scooter it calls the Zoomer—great fun at 30 mph for $1500. There are now over 420 employees worldwide for the company.

SolarSPI Groups is forecasting a solidly profitable year for 2023. Revenue is projected to be $250-300 million with profits of $29-36 million, including the first profits for Solar4America in the fourth quarter. This would be a big advance for SPI which previously had not achieved profitability for any sustained period, or had annual revenue of more than $200 million.

Throughout all the twists and turns, one constant has been engineer Hoong Kheong (“HK”) Cheong. He is back now as COO of Solar4America and on the Board of other units of the conglomerate as well. It was probably HK who recommended a move of the company back to Sacramento. The Company had been in Shanghai and Silicon Valley. HK knew the building would be economical and that SMUD rates were going to be among the lowest in California. Now the global headquarters of the company is also in McClellan Park.

So welcome back SPI, in your many forms! Glad to see that of all the places you could be, you realize this is home and a great place to do manufacturing.

Thomas Hall

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Gary Simon is the Chair of CleanStart's Board. A seasoned energy executive and entrepreneur with 45 years of experience in business, government, and non-profits.

CleanStart Sponsors

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Moss AdamsPowerSoft.biz, Greenberg Traurig, California Mobility Center

Anyone Getting Rich on Clean Tech Stocks?

Anyone Getting Rich on Clean Tech Stocks?

The question often comes up whether clean tech is really a good investment for the little guy. There are billions being invested—but what is the result in building wealth for investors? Of course, Elon Musk and a few other individuals have gotten rich. But is the wealth being spread more broadly? One way to answer it is to look at the performance of public clean tech stocks. There is now more than a decade of history to look at.
You can try to follow all the public cleantech stocks, but there are now so many that would be an enormous job. As a better alternative, there are a number of indexes purporting to track clean tech, For some, though, when you look at what stocks are in the index, they don’t seem so clean. You find oil and gas companies, large utilities, big software companies (like Microsoft), and big industrials as well as a smattering of smaller clean tech companies in their list.
However, there is one index that has been doing a pretty good job of focusing on a “pure play” list of what most would consider cleantech companies. CleanEdge, Inc. has created the CELS index, and it is tracked on NASDAQ. It is still a blend of very early-stage public companies with their more mature cousins but stays closer to what one would ordinarily think of as clean tech. Ten years ago there were not many public clean tech stocks. Now CELS follows 62 companies. CleanEdge has also created indexes focused on certain clean tech sectors: HHO for clean water, QGRD for smart grid infrastructure, and GWE for wind energy.
While the CELS index is listed on NASDAQ, you cannot trade on it. To do that, you must look for an exchange-traded fund or ETF that holds the same stocks as CELS. The only one so far is done by First Trust Advisors with the symbol QCLN (First Trust Clean Edge Green Energy Fund). As an investor, the advantage of a managed index such as CELS is that periodically the weakest companies that no longer meet established criteria are dropped and new ones are added. This may not give a good picture of the overall trend in cleantech companies listed on public exchanges, but it is a better way to invest in a portfolio of clean tech companies than trying to manage a basket of stocks yourself.
The performance record of CELS has been good in the long term (a dollar invested in 2012 became over $400 today), but a bummer in the last two years. The volatility year-to-year is a bit frightening.

CELS Index

Source:
https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/docs/FS_CEXX.pdf 

In CELS, there are a number of companies that now pay dividends, albeit small ones. The aggregate yield is now 0.28%. Recognizing that investors may be looking for less volatility and more reliable income, NASDAQ and Clean Edge, Inc. recently announced the creation of a new tracking index for such companies, called the Global Green Income Index (GGINC™). It contains several of the dividend-paying stocks in QCLN and adds a related set of companies (real estate trusts, yield, cos, investment trusts) that are cleantech-oriented and focus on income generation. It is a measure of the industry that one can even put together such a fund in clean tech now.

It will probably take a little time for some firms to create an ETF around this new index while some history is accumulated. Watch for that next step. If it occurs, it may open more fixed-income funds to be willing to invest in this way in clean tech, and that may boost share prices as well.

Thomas Hall

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Gary Simon is the Chair of CleanStart’s Board. A seasoned energy executive and entrepreneur with 45 years of experience in business, government, and non-profits.

CleanStart Sponsors

Weintraub | TobinBlueTech Valley, Revrnt, River City Bank

Moss AdamsPowerSoft.biz, Greenberg Traurig, California Mobility Center

PortLabs Offers Options for Regional CleanTech Companies

PortLabs Offers Options for Regional CleanTech Companies

 

 

PortLabs

PortLabs

PortLabs is an incubator and prototyping space that is ready to help clean tech startups in our region from its home base in downtown Oakland, near the 19th Street BART station.  They have a new 22,000 square foot office space.  They offer shop space, coworking space, classes, and most importantly coaching and community.  Building a startup can be an isolating and lonely experience.  It is important to get involved in groups that keep the motivation up.  PortLabs looks like one way to do that.  We recorded our discussion with them and you can view it here.

They operate on a membership basis, but it’s pretty inexpensive, especially for a part-time membership.  And they offer a number of webinars for free.  They work with technology companies of all kinds, but do include clean tech.  Founder Sal Bednarz and his colleagues Matt Kelly (Community and Workshop Manager) and Kyle Valiton (Product Engineering and Manufacturing) have years of experience in prototyping and in connecting to experienced mentors and economic development funding.  They offer some of their services virtually, which may be of particular value here.  A promo video is available here.  

They are having some upcoming free events online.  You can sign up for any of these events, and others, at this site.  Just browse and see what looks interesting.  

Here are some topics that may be of interest:

Crowdfunding 101: Funding Your Small Business Through Kickstarter, Feb 22 @ 7:00 pm – 10:00 pm PST

Closing the Best Deal – Negotiation for Start-Ups and Small Businesses, Mar 2 @ 7:00 pm – 8:30 pm PST

Capital Planning Deep Dive, Mar 14 @ 7:00 pm – 10:00 pm PST – the start of a four-session overview of how to make a capital plan for your startup or growing business.

Measure and Manage Your Company Valuation, Mar 23 @ 7:00 pm – 8:30 pm PST

As an example of their connection to clean tech, they have one clean tech company in particular, a zinc ion battery company called Salient Energy.  They started with space for 2 engineers and now are at 7 staff, hoping to double soon—and then probably move out into their own space.  ChargePoint and EVGo similarly were members at their early stages and now obviously have become larger, successful companies.

Matthew says drop in any time you might need a place to hang your hat if you are doing business in the Bay Area.  They have one-day free passes.  They would love to give people a tour.  The door is open.

Thomas Hall

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Gary Simon is the Chair of CleanStart’s Board. A seasoned energy executive and entrepreneur with 45 years of experience in business, government, and non-profits.

CleanStart Sponsors

Weintraub | TobinBlueTech Valley, Revrnt, River City Bank

Moss AdamsPowerSoft.biz, Greenberg Traurig, California Mobility Center

Consumer Electronics Show Sees Another EV

Consumer Electronics Show Sees Another EV

Over the past few years we have seen several EV startups striving to be bigger than Tesla. They have produced a lot of innovative ideas and designs. Boasting impressive efficiency numbers like Aptera or massive utility and flexibility like Canoo. Dutch Company Lightyear revealed its “Lightyear 0” last year for >$250,000 and at CES previewed the “Lightyear 2” , a realistic consumer model for ~$40K. They are taking reservations now. Lightyear’s vehicles have impressives efficiency numbers and can charge with solar PV on the car itself.

Reservations for consumer cars have been the metric from startup EV manufacturers to validate their success, made popular when the Tesla Model 3 got reservation numbers like the first iPhone. These reservations also help raise the much needed capital for manufacturing the cars. The Lightyear 2 is set to be delivered in late 2025. This is the first test of my prediction that the new EV OEM rush is over. Are consumers willing to reserve (assuming it requires a deposit) an EV, to be delivered in nearly 3 years, with a plethora of EVs from established OEMs coming to the market? Is having solar on the car a gimmick or is it something people want?

We will see. The Aptera has solar and gets ~10 miles per KwH (Tesla’s get ~4) but they have yet to deliver. Aptera is still taking reservations if you are interested. If Lightyear is able to garner significant reservations. Solar PV on the vehicle might be a key, even though it does not provide much of a charge per hour.

Thomas Hall

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Gary Simon is the Chair of CleanStart’s Board. A seasoned energy executive and entrepreneur with 45 years of experience in business, government, and non-profits.

CleanStart Sponsors

Weintraub | TobinBlueTech Valley, Revrnt, River City Bank

Moss AdamsPowerSoft.biz, Greenberg Traurig, California Mobility Center

CalSEED Returns

CalSEED Returns

Starting Feb. 17, CalSEED is opening a window to accept applications for Cohort 6 awards. The window closes March 5. Joy Larson went over the new features of this program with two of her colleagues (Lindsey Roark of CalSEED and Sneha Ayyagari of the Greenlining Institute) at our Perspectives event on January 31. It was a very informative session and it is all queued-up for you on our LinkedIn channel or as a condensed video on our website. This has been the single most-effective program for getting small grants to innovators to develop their ideas. We have seen 8 companies in our region get funding this way. The money is available to prove-up a concept ($150,000) and then for developing the most promising ones in a second phase ($450,000).
Here are the basic things you need to know:
1. They have limits on eligibility: You need to be working on a concept at an early stage (Technology Readiness Level 2, 3, or 4), you have raised less than $1 million in private money, and your innovation is based in California and will benefit California ratepayers.

2. You must have an innovation that fits in one of the 19 categories of specified technology areas.

3. Applications are done in two stages. The first is to fill out the short screening application with the basics of your idea. It should take you about an hour. CalSEED then invites those that pass its first review to make a submit a full application for the second stage. That application may take 3-10 hours to fill out. It is a serious deal. Those applications need to be submitted between March 10 and 28.

4. About 28 applications will be awarded the $150K grants. Typically, 200-300 applications are initially submitted, and less than half are invited to the second round.

5. Getting an award opens the door to a whole lot of other resources—participation in the CleanTech Open, access to expert mentors, training classes, and showcase events. The benefits are greater than just the dollar-value of the award.

6. A key question on the application is how your innovation could advance energy equity and social impact. This is a tough question for most applicants to answer, but it is worth significant points in the scoring of the applications. CalSEED is offering help from the Greenlining Institute to define what could be included in an application to address these concerns. See page 30 in the full Application Manual for a description on what needs to be submitted.

If you want to give CalSEED a try, we urge you to reach out to us and schedule a session during our office hours to let us give you some advice to improve your chances. We have been doing this for the last 3 Cohorts and it is working well.

Written by Gary Simon, CleanStart Chairman

Show Me the Money—How to Find It

Show Me the Money—How to Find It

There is a Green Tidal Wave of money coming for clean tech innovators, but the question is how to get it.  One has to read over 1000 pages of “summary guidance” to figure this out.  It takes a lot of work, but at our MeetUp on the evening of January 26th, we presented what we had found in our own review of all the paperwork.  We focused on what the opportunities are for innovators to tap the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Act for contract and grant money.  Over $250 billion is earmarked to fund more than 100 line items in each of the federal laws.  In addition, $50-100 billion is available from the state, through a dozen agencies, with the CEC and CARB being the most relevant.  (See in particular our recent blog on the CARB Scoping Plan.)   And many tax incentives have been created in addition that add to the total amount innovators could tap, and add hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies to projects.  

The biggest take-away is that the details of how to apply for the money are very sparse right now.  That means the best thing to do is to begin to get on mail lists for future funding opportunity notices and to develop relationships with the state and local agencies most likely to be the ones that will administer the money.  Networking can be very effective to get you a better place in line when the money begins to flow.

One of the newest innovations in these laws is the idea of the “Direct Pay” of tax incentives to project developers, even if they have no current tax liability.  This is a huge change from trying to sell tax incentives to an organization with huge tax liabilities, for 60 cents on the dollar.  The impact would be 100 cents on the dollar and paid up-front.  It is like a zero-interest loan.  But like with everything else the details are absent.  How is the up-front payment to be reconciled with actual outcomes?  From whom will the direct payments come?  

A venture investor in the audience agreed that small startups should go after this kind of funding, since it is not a sale of shares and therefore, is non-dilutive.  Moreover, this funding can provide the means to demonstrate and develop a technology that would never be paid for by investors at an early stage.

We also had a discussion as to what the process for actually doling out the dollars would be and whether the politics of the current Congress will get in the way.

To learn more, watch the video below. It contains live links to several other source documents to aid your exploration of how this funding may help you.  We undoubtedly will be returning to this topic as more information is revealed.

Looking to 2023… Our Predictions

Looking to 2023… Our Predictions

Even for the most studied of clean tech watchers, the business of predicting the future of green technologies is hard work. In 2022, Clean Start Chairman Gary Simon and Executive Director Thomas Hall put their decades of knowledge to work … with mixed results. In this round-up, they are back at the business of sharing their informed take on the future on all things clean tech. The world took notice of the milestone step towards fusion power, but Gary reveals the next big step towards a seemingly endless source of clean power. And while YouTubers can’t stop fawning over the electric vehicle startups like Rivian, Polestar, and Lucia, Thomas makes a bold prediction about the fate of the EV startups.  Will these predictions prove accurate? Let’s debate in the comments but only time will tell.

There will be no Level 3 Energy Emergency Alerts in California this year.   

This alert level is the last step before starting rotating blackouts to preserve the grid.  We had one at this level on September 6, but avoided the rotating blackouts.  It’s pretty bold to say we won’t have another in the coming year because It depends on so many random factors—generator outages, extreme heat, transmission line failures, accidents, and the like.  But we believe the grid is more resilient now and can withstand these random events.

Lithium prices will decline and finish the year below $40,000 per MT. 

Lithium carbonate skyrocketed to $75,000 per MT at the end of 2022 (see Chart 3 here).  That ten-fold price increase since 2020 was causing many to question the viability of the EV sales forecasts.  However, we see many projects to create more supply and to decrease the amount of lithium needed per battery.  The result will be a decline in prices, but not all the way back to levels of $5,000/MT from a decade ago.  We believe the decline will continue into 2024, but one fearless prediction at a time. 

Private, pulsed-fusion company Helion will announce reaching significant milestones. 

The announcement out of Livermore National Lab about “better than breakeven” (actually, the experiment returned only 1% of the energy required to fire the lasers) from the huge 192-laser government-funded multi-billion-dollar National Ignition Facility got a lot of attention.  But a little-noticed privately-financed effort may be making even more progress.  It avoids trying to achieve a stable “micro-sun” ball of plasma (like all the tokamak variations) which may involve insurmountable physics challenges. Instead, it relies on rapid repetitive laser-induced pulses which look easier to control.  It fuses deuterium and helium-3 and doesn’t make radioactive products.  Second, it involves direct conversion of the produced energy to electricity rather than converting the energy to heat and using that to boil water.  The direct conversion is possible because the products of the reaction are charged ions that can be collected, rather than slowing down fast-moving neutrons that have no charge (but create radioactive wastes).  Helion has raised $500 million to build a larger scale demo to start operations 2024.  The metric is whether it achieves the interim milestones in 2023 that will result in investors putting in more money up to the $2 billion they promised. There is another contender pursuing a similar approach (rapid laser pulses and direct DC conversion), but trying to harness hydrogen-boron 11 fusion, based in Australia. This company (HB11 Energy) is also worth watching. It’s Big Science vs. The Little Guys. Our bet is on the underdogs, with their showing some significant gains in 2023.

Power Purchase Agreement pricing on average for either solar or wind will not exceed $50/MWh. 

PPA prices for utility scale projects have been on a steep rise since the beginning of 2019.  Wind has gone from $24.60 to $48/MWh in 3Q2022 according to surveys by Level Ten Energy, and solar has increased from $27.90 to $42.21/ MWh.  These big jumps started in about 3Q2021, and were attributed to congestion in the interconnection queues, increased component pricing during the pandemic, and higher labor rates due to inflation.  We think those problems are now “baked in” and the steep rises won’t continue.  We expect the prices to rise more slowly by the end of 2023, and maybe even drop a little.

Source

 

Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit prices will increase but stay below $70 for the year

These credits are providing strong economic incentives to use non-petroleum fuels and as a result subsidizing the producers of such fuels.  In the summer of 2020, the credit prices reached a peak of about $210 per metric ton of fossil CO2 (equivalent) avoided.  They have now declined to about $60.  These are much higher prices than the carbon allowances from the cap-and-trade program which finished the year around $30 per MT CO2 equivalent, and are creating a powerful incentive to produce alternate fuels.  We expect the prices for LCFS credits to go up because each year CARB ratchets down the fuel carbon intensity target, increasing the need for credits and at the same time reducing the quantity.  Prices come down when the new supply of alternate fuels exceeds demand.  We think we see the supply expanding, so predict that the LCFS credit price will increase only moderately. We have covered how LCFS are driveing emission reductions in California.

Fewer than 10,000 Level 2 Charging Stations will be installed in 2023 in California. 

California will struggle to reach its charging station goals. The growth of public and shared charging has been anemic. In January 2021 California had 70,000 public and shared chargers and had 123,000 planned. Of those almost, 6,000 installed and 3,600 planned are DC fast charges. Now, two years later, the state has over 8,500 DC fast chargers and 80,000 total stations.  Where are all the level two charging stations we have been predicting?  The Cost of Level 2 is too high and most of it is not hardware. To reach California’s 2025 goal of 250,000 stations the CEC has committed to spending $2.9 billion, hoping it will spur 90,000 new EV chargers.  $900 Million (plus  ~$384M from NEVI) for light duty EV Charging. That works out to about ~$14,000 a charger. Hopefully that will cover it. But for the next year, we predict people fighting over parking spaces and property managers not wanting a headache will hamper California’s goal. (We hope we are wrong.)

Two EV startup companies will be acquired, one by a non-OEM.

In the past two years, there has been an ensemble of Electric Vehicle Manufactures going public on the New York and NASDAQ exchanges. Capital was cheap and everyone wanted to duplicate Tesla’s Stock success. Becoming public was a great option to raise billions needed to deliver EVs. Things have changed but the EV transition is still full steam ahead. Many new EV companies are trading down 80-90%.  Being a public company now opens them up to something new. Being acquired. There are several Incumbent OEMs that are behind on the EV transition. Toyota, Mercedes, BMW, Honda, etc.  All of the new publicly traded EV companies (with US or European HQs) are now targets for acquisition. And it is not just companies making consumer cars. Both Amazon and Walmart entered into exclusives for delivery vehicles form Rivian and Canoo, whose market cap has been cut in half the last 6 months. Buying a company critical to their distribution at a discount will look very appealing. Small vehicle companies like Arrival SA and Electra Meccanica Vehicles Corp. might be appealing to OEMs like Honda and BMW. With their stock falling and capital cost rising, most of these companies should be eager to accept. Two of the following:

Companies that may be acquired

% from 52 week high

Approx market cap ($)

Arrival SA

-97.84%

<150M

Electra Meccanica Vehicles Corp

-74.70%

70M

Polestar

-60.03%

11B

Rivian

-83.84%

17B

Lucid Group Inc.

-87.01%

11B

Fisker Inc

-62.09%

2B

Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc

-96.43%

<150M

Canoo Inc

-85.04%

<500M

Nikola Corp

-81.97%

1B

The Sacramento Region will attract a net zero fuel investment >$50 Million.

With the IRA and infrastructure bills, there will be a push for projects that could deliver economies of scale in hydrogen and net zero fuels. With our region’s success with companies and advocacy groups there is a strong possibility of increased investment right here. Sierra Northern Railway has a hydrogen station going in and a hydrogen locomotive, Infinium is doing large projects around the world but operating right here, the California Fuel Cell Partnership has gone international. We believe we will attract enormous investment locally.

Amazon Delivery Vans

By the end of 2022, Rivian finally released more than 1,000 custom electric delivery vans for Amazon. As a startup company, Rivian is looking at major demands from Amazon  with their order of 100,000 electric vans by 2030. Rivian will need to make approximately 10,000 vans per year. We believe Rivian still has many obstacles to overcome in such a short time as a new company. They will fall short in 2023, making approximately 4,000 – 6,000 electric vans.

Installed storage capacity in the US will double. 

According to Wood Mackenzie, by the end of 2022, the installed capacity of energy storage projects in the US totalled 13.4 GWh, including grid-scale installations and customer-owned projects.  In Q3 alone new installations were 4,733 MWh for grid-scale storage and 401 MWh for residential storage projects.  We believe that this total capacity will double over the next year, which is less than many analysts forecast.  They believe that installations will top 30.3 GWh.  We foresee battery production bottlenecks that will restrict the growth. 

The cost of an electric vehicle battery pack will fall below $140/kWh. 

Even in the face of dramatically higher lithium carbonate prices, the prices for a full battery pack have been declining.  The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Vehicle Technologies Office estimates the cost of an electric vehicle lithium-ion battery pack in 2022 was $153/kWh on a usable-energy basis for production at scale of at least 100,000 units per year. That compares to $1,355/kWh in 2008, a remarkable drop. The decline has been slowing, but we think it will drop another 10% in 2023.

Source: U.S. DOE, Vehicle Technologies Office, using Argonne National Laboratory’s BatPaC: Battery Manufacturing Cost Estimation Tool.

Let’s hope for a great year!

Thomas Hall

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Gary Simon is the Chair of CleanStart’s Board. A seasoned energy executive and entrepreneur with 45 years of experience in business, government, and non-profits.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Thomas is the Executive Director of CleanStart. Thomas has a strong background in supporting small businesses, leadership, financial management and is proficient in working with nonprofits. He has a BS in Finance and a BA in Economics from California State University, Chico. Thomas has a passion for sustainability and a commitment to supporting non-profits in the region.

CleanStart Sponsors

Weintraub | TobinBlueTech Valley, Revrnt, River City Bank

Moss AdamsPowerSoft.biz, Greenberg Traurig, California Mobility Center

Destination Decarbonization: Student Contest with Real Prizes

Destination Decarbonization: Student Contest with Real Prizes

Are you an undergraduate college student and want a shot at several thousand dollars in prize money? Consider entering the 90-day Destination Decarbonization Challenge! Sam Fairbanks at the Water and Energy Technology (WET) Center at Fresno State provided a quick overview of what the challenge is and how to apply. The main point is that the window is now open through January 31. If you want to give it a shot, better move fast. A video of Sam’s presentation is available on our YouTube Channel.

The idea of the challenge is for small teams of 2-4 students to propose ways to eliminate carbon dioxide emissions either from a brand new idea or from an idea on how to improve something that is already happening. Teams can look at anything that broadly will reduce emissions or capture carbon dioxide for beneficial. The teams will work with mentors and other resources the WET Center can help arrange. The payoff comes on April 21 when the teams pitch their ideas to a panel of expert judges.

The top prize is $6,000, with $4,000 for second and $2,000 for third. There is a webinar that provides details on how to apply on January 19 at 5:30 pm. More information is available on the Challenge website.

Check it out!

Thomas Hall

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Gary Simon is the Chair of CleanStart’s Board. A seasoned energy executive and entrepreneur with 45 years of experience in business, government, and non-profits.

CleanStart Sponsors

Weintraub | TobinBlueTech Valley, Revrnt, River City Bank

Moss AdamsPowerSoft.biz, Greenberg Traurig, California Mobility Center

T-Omega May Have the Key to California Offshore Wind

T-Omega May Have the Key to California Offshore Wind

Offshore wind could be the biggest untapped renewable resource for California, and one that provides pretty steady power. The problem in tapping it has been that the best spots are in very deep water (3000 feet and more). Sites like that have been far too expensive to exploit in conventional ways.

On January 5, Brita Formato, CEO of offshore wind innovator T-Omega Wind, and her colleagues CTO Andy Myers and CCO Dave Forbes presented their potential breakthrough in making the 25 GW CEC goal for offshore wind installations a reality. The attraction of the offshore wind resource off the California coast is that it is so steady. It could be a “baseload renewable,” offsetting the problem of intermittency to a large degree. That would add a great deal more certainty to the zero-carbon power mix.

T-Omega TurbineBut the traditional kind of floating offshore wind installations have been expensive. To date, the offshore wind installations have been providing power at $85-130/MWh. T-Omega has designed a much simpler and dramatically less costly option for deepwater install-lations, with its four-leg design. It floats, and is loosely tethered to the sea floor, allowing it to survive rough conditions while being lightweight. It is relatively low profile and can be moved if it interferes with fishing grounds unexpectedly. Their projected LCOE is less than half the conventional approach.

The typical offshore wind is a heavy floating platform weighing 3-4,000 tons for a 10 MW installation. The T-Omega alternative tips the scale at an estimated 1,000 tons for the same size. That huge savings in steel and concrete translates directly to lower cost.

In addition, T-Omega has made innovations in the type of generator used (a more “pancake” design) and the reduction of the stress on the bearings holding the rotor, accomplished by supporting the rotor at both ends rather than in the middle. Maintenance is simpler, too, with the ability to tow out another unit and retrieve the broken one for a trip back to shore. No need for expensive and difficult on-site repairs. And the port/onshore construction and repair facilities would be much simpler for their modules than for the huge platforms taller than a New York skyscraper.

Brita said they have seen a great deal of interest from developers that won the recent $757 million auction of offshore wind leases in California (with the potential for 4,600 MW of generation), but that the company needs to validate all its projections with a couple of demonstration projects to be considered a viable option. They have recently been awarded an NSF grant to move that work forward. They are also trying to raise $10-12 million for that purpose now. They want to get to a commercial scale unit by 2026.

During the discussion, it was pointed out that getting adequate transmission to move the power into the backbone of the grid may be a big hurdle. To get more than a few hundred MWs tied-in could require a big investment. That problem is being worked on by the CEC, the CPUC, and the utilities, but the pace at which they add transmission may be the bottleneck that slows progress.

T-Omega is sure to gain more attention and we will definitely be inviting them back for an update.

The session is available on our YouTube Channel, if you missed it. 

Thomas Hall

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Gary Simon is the Chair of CleanStart’s Board. A seasoned energy executive and entrepreneur with 45 years of experience in business, government, and non-profits.

CleanStart Sponsors

Weintraub | TobinBlueTech Valley, Revrnt, River City Bank

Moss AdamsPowerSoft.biz, Greenberg Traurig, California Mobility Center