New forecasts from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) say hyperscale data centers will need nearly 175 GW of new power supply by 2035 — almost double what BNEF projected just a year ago. That’s a staggering number. But is it a realistic one? We’re not so sure.

What the New BNEF Report Actually Says

BNEF’s new U.S. data center capacity outlook forecasts most of that 175 GW of demand landing in the PJM power pool on the East Coast and across the Midwest. California’s slice of the boom? Tiny by comparison.

Count us among the skeptics.

Can the Grid or the Turbine Makers Actually Deliver?

Grid constraints mean BNEF expects most of that new power to come from co-located generation, primarily natural gas-fired combined cycle plants built right next to the data centers themselves.

Here’s the problem: turbine manufacturers are already booked solid for the next five years, and by other estimates can only supply a small fraction of that 175 GW target. Add to that a growing wave of public pushback against building large industrial power plants in communities that thought they were getting quiet, “clean” computing centers — not new gas plants next door.

Bottom line: the supply chain and the public may not cooperate with the forecast, no matter how good the spreadsheet math looks.

Is the AI Boom Even Profitable Or Just Hyped?

Before we build out hundreds of gigawatts of new generation, it’s worth asking a bigger question: is there really an AI profit boom, or is it mostly hype?

Nvidia and TSMC are undeniably cashing in, posting huge profits on chip sales. But the picture looks different further down the value chain. OpenAI and Anthropic are generating serious commercial revenue — yet remain deeply cash-flow negative as they pour money into R&D and model training.

Much of the “profit” in this boom isn’t coming from earnings at all. It’s coming from stock price gains tied to projections of future growth that may or may not materialize.

Reading the Red Flags

Put it all together, and real signs are pointing toward “bubble”:

• Demand forecasts that nearly doubled in a single year
• A supply chain that can’t keep pace with projected buildout
• Rising public resistance to new industrial power infrastructure
• “Profits” driven more by stock valuation than by cash in hand

What This Means for Clean Energy Innovators

If the forecast is shaky, that’s not bad news for everyone — it’s an opening. There’s room for smarter, more creative solutions to data center power demand:

• Efficiency gains — not just in power use, but in chip and algorithm design
• Strategic siting — locations where public objections won’t derail projects
• Realistic planning — a caution flag for developers betting big on smooth sailing

See the Data for Yourself

We’ve laid out why we’re skeptical — but don’t just take our word for it. Read BNEF’s full data center capacity outlook and be your own judge.