Each year, we publish bold predictions on clean energy, climate policy, and technology markets. For 2025, we decided to be especially fearless. The result? A humbling year.

Out of 10 clean energy predictions for 2025, we:

• Got 3 correct
• Earned half credit on 2
• Missed 5 entirely

That makes 2025 our weakest performance yet in these annual forecasts. Accountability matters, so here’s a full breakdown of where we were right, wrong, and surprised. And yes — our 2026 clean energy predictions are coming next month.

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1. U.S. Lithium Prices Would Fall Below $8,000/MT

Result: Wrong

Battery-grade lithium prices declined modestly in 2025 but never came close to our forecast. Prices stayed above $11,500/MT by year’s end.

What happened:

• EV demand remained strong in the U.S. and globally
• Lithium supply additions lagged despite announcements of new deposits
• New projects did not translate into near-term market supply

Key takeaway: The lithium market continues to be constrained by long development timelines, keeping prices elevated.

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2. Battery Prices Would Drop Below $90/kWh

Result: Wrong

Battery prices barely moved in 2025. According to Bloomberg, costs declined just $2–3/kWh from the $115/kWh average in 2024. In China, prices hovered near $100/kWh due to sustained demand.

Wild card: U.S. tariffs.
If tariffs are overturned by the Supreme Court, a sharper price correction could still be ahead.

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3. The Nuclear–AI Data Center Connection Would Fade

Result: Half Credit

AI data center investment surged, and so did electricity demand — up 22% in 2025 and projected to triple by 2030. Nuclear power, however, has yet to deliver on its promises.

Key developments:

• Palisades Nuclear Plant restart planned (but not confirmed) for late 2025
• Three Mile Island Unit One restart targeted for 2027 with DOE loan support
• Google exploring solar alternatives to nuclear for Iowa data centers
• New greenfield nuclear and fusion projects remain unproven

Trend to watch: Data centers increasingly favor onsite power, battery storage, and flexible energy management over nuclear timelines.

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4. Carbon Pricing in North America Would Be Volatile

Result: Wrong

Carbon prices stabilized instead of swinging wildly.

• Prices peaked at $42/ton CO₂ in early 2024
• Fell to $26–30/ton in 2025
• Now hovering around $28/ton with low volatility

Impact:

• Climate Investment Fund revenue dropped from $4.3B (2024) to $3.4B (2025)
• LCFS credits peaked at $78, dropped to $42, briefly rebounded, and settled near $50

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5. 30% of New Vehicle Sales Would Be ZEVs

Result: Wrong

Zero-emission vehicles accounted for 29.1% of California sales in Q3 2025, but full-year sales are expected to land just above 25%.

Why the miss:

• Slower start early in the year
• Total light-duty vehicle sales declined slightly
• Federal tax credit phase-out pulled demand forward unevenly

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6. Solar Construction Costs Would Fall to 55% of 2014 Levels

Result: Correct

Solar continues its long-term cost decline.

Year	Cost per kW Installed	% of 2014
2014	$3,124	100%
2023	$1,968	63%
2024 (Q3)	$1,779	57%

Data suggests 2025 costs may fall below our 55% target, reinforcing solar’s cost leadership.

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7. California Would Miss Its 250,000 EV Charger Goal

Result: Half Credit

We correctly predicted the trend — but were too optimistic.

• 201,180 public chargers installed by Sept 2025
• Roughly 22,000 added in 7 months
• Year-end total likely closer to 213,000–215,000

Governor Newsom’s target remains out of reach, and installation pace is slowing.

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8. Global Carbon Trading Would Be Announced (But Not Launched)

Result: Correct

No formal global carbon market was announced in 2025. Progress stalled after COP29, with limited movement at COP30.

Contributing factors:

• Global economic uncertainty
• U.S. withdrawal from climate negotiations
• Ongoing disputes over market rules

Outlook: Global carbon trading feels inevitable — but delayed. Unfortunately, this weakens the chances of limiting warming below 2°C, with projections now closer to 2.6°C.

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9. SMUD Would Announce a Major Geothermal Expansion

Result: Wrong

Despite optimism early in the year, geothermal expansion stalled.

• AB 527 passed to ease exploratory drilling
• Governor Newsom vetoed the bill
• Political and community resistance increased

Momentum shifted away from geothermal in 2025.

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10. Offshore Wind Would Grow Globally — But Stall in California

Result: Correct (But Underestimated)

Offshore wind adoption slowed dramatically worldwide. In the U.S., both large and mid-scale offshore wind projects struggled amid federal policy shifts.

California’s offshore wind ambitions were hit particularly hard, with multiple projects delayed or paused.

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Final Thoughts: What 2025 Taught Us

2025 reminded us that energy markets are shaped as much by politics and permitting as by technology and economics. While we missed the mark more than usual, several long-term trends remain clear:

• Clean energy demand is still growing
• Infrastructure timelines matter more than forecasts
• Policy risk continues to dominate outcomes

Stay tuned for our 2026 clean energy predictions — coming next month.