We’re making our annual energy and climate predictions. Disagree? Tell us why.

1. Another Major Private Investment in Nuclear

Private capital keeps flowing into fusion and novel nuclear technologies. In 2025, Helion raised $425M (over $1B total since 2013) to build demo units linked to a Microsoft power deal, even without proving net energy. TAE merged with Trump’s TMTG, unlocking $200M toward a 50 MW demo plant planned to start construction in 2026.

Other well-funded fusion players—like Zap Energy, Pacific Fusion, HB11, and Commonwealth Fusion—may also seize the moment. Small modular fission developers could make moves too. We expect at least one more private investment over $100M this year. DOE loan guarantees will also be large, but private bets are the stronger signal.

2. U.S. Solar Installations Dip Below 40 GW

U.S. solar added 49.5 GWdc in 2025 and is forecast by SEIA/Wood Mackenzie to fall to 44 GWdc in 2026. We think that’s still too high. With economic uncertainty and unclear federal policy, we expect less than 40 GWdc this year—a meaningful slowdown after a decade of rapid growth.Source: SEIA/Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables Solar Market Insight Q4 2025 

3. California Keeps its Solar Lead

Texas has been gaining fast, fueled by data center demand and large-scale solar, but policy signals matter. With federal support shifting toward oil and gas, Texas solar growth will likely cool. California will slow too, but not as sharply. Net result: California’s lead in total installed capacity holds well beyond 2030.

4. Residential Solar Costs Rise Slightly

Residential solar dropped for years, hitting $4.42/W in 2018. Since then, prices climbed to $5.03/W in 2025—driven partly by the rush to capture federal incentives. We don’t expect major increases ahead, but a mild bump continues. We see 2026 settling around $5.07/W or below.

5. EV Adoption in California Stays Flat

Federal policy has turned against EVs, and the removal of U.S. manufacturing incentives strengthens China’s lead. National EV adoption will slow without subsidies. California is the exception: charging keeps growing, state support remains strong, and financing incentives help consumers. Expect ZEV sales at about 22–25% of total sales in Q3 2026, roughly level with 2025. Source:  ZEV Dashboard from CEC

6. Two Large Fast-Charging Depots Open Locally

California continues to lead in high-speed charging infrastructure, especially for commercial fleets. Incentives (like LCFS), fleet electrification mandates, and private capital are driving large, attended charging depots—more gas-station than shopping-mall. We expect two privately owned depots with 20+ fast chargers each operating in our region by late 2026.

7. Oil Demand Eases and Prices Fall

Oil currently sits near $56 (WTI). We expect global demand to soften as economies decouple from fossil fuels and developing regions accelerate solar and EV adoption. Africa, for example, hit 20 GW of solar capacity and may double that next year. With Venezuela potentially returning to global markets and China expanding energy exports, oversupply pushes WTI below $52/barrel in 2026.

8. Regional Cleantech Investment Around $50M

Despite anti-climate rhetoric in Washington, investors haven’t abandoned cleantech. 2026 won’t match the surge of 2025 (which benefited from momentum built in 2024), but we still expect around $50M in regional equity investment.

9. Data Center Demand Growth Slows

Forecasts warn that AI data centers and EV charging could push U.S. electricity demand up 30–50% in five years. We’re skeptical. Once big power users see they’ll shoulder upgrade costs, they’ll pivot: onsite generation, storage, demand management, and more efficient chips/models. We expect U.S. electricity demand to rise less than 4% annually through 2030. Early signals: delayed data center builds, onsite power solutions, and slower utility capex.

10. Battery Packs Drop Below $100/kWh

Global average battery pack prices are about $108/kWh (BNEF). We missed last year’s call, but the downward trend holds. We expect prices to fall below $100/kWh in 2026.