Inside SF Climate Week 2026: A CleanStart Perspective

Inside SF Climate Week 2026: A CleanStart Perspective

Last week I joined more than 60,000 attendees at San Francisco Climate Week 2026 — the Bay Area’s sprawling, nine-day convergence of climate leaders, founders, investors, policymakers, and advocates. With 650-plus events spread across the city, SFCW has become one of the largest climate gatherings in the world, and this year’s edition made clear just how fast California’s clean energy ecosystem is evolving.

Over several packed days, I attended panels and summits covering everything from next-generation battery technology and data-center power demands to wildfire-driven insurance crises, net-zero transportation, climate foresight tools, and the economic engine of the clean economy. Here’s what stood out:  Despite headwinds from Washington, D.C., California’s clean economy continues to generate innovation, jobs, and economic growth. That reinforced the importance of the work we do at CleanStart–helping innovators turn bright ideals and ambitious goals into deliverable action through bringing those ideas to the market.

Battery Innovation Summit: Where Deep Tech Meets Deployment

The Battery Innovation Summit, held April 22–24 during Climate Week, was a standout. This wasn’t a generic climate panel — it was a commercialization-focused convening of 300-plus leaders from across the battery, energy storage, electrification, and power infrastructure sectors. Founders, engineers, investors, OEMs, utilities, and policymakers gathered to align around what actually matters: deployment and scale.

The summit zeroed in on a theme that was impossible to ignore across Climate Week: data centers are reshaping the energy conversation. The explosive growth of AI-driven computing is creating massive new electricity demand, and the battery and grid storage sectors are racing to respond. Discussions explored how deep-tech batteries — from long-duration storage breakthroughs to novel chemistries — can serve e-mobility, grid reliability, and the data-center buildout simultaneously. For clean energy advocates like CleanStart, this convergence is a reminder that the energy transition is no longer just about replacing fossil fuels — it’s about building entirely new energy infrastructure to support a digital economy that didn’t exist a decade ago.

Investable startups, supply chain strategy, and the manufacturing-to-deployment pipeline were recurring themes. The message was clear: the technology is ready, but capital, permitting, and supply-chain coordination remain the bottlenecks.

Climate Foresight and Resilience: Making Complexity Legible

At the Climate Foresight & Resilience event, hosted at 9Zero and presented as part of SF Climate Week’s programming, the conversation turned to how investors and builders can make better decisions in a world where climate outcomes are too complex for intuition and too dynamic for static models.

Anthos presented on causal intelligence — the idea that capturing expert knowledge as computable causal models can reveal where leverage actually lives in complex systems. Cool Climate Collective shared their internationally recognized Three Futures Test, a foresight framework that stress-tests climate ventures across divergent scenarios to build portfolios grounded in resilience rather than optimism. And Resilience Investments introduced a framework for putting California’s public assets to work in a new model for wildfire risk reduction, grid resilience, and the state’s insurance crisis.

For CleanStart, these tools matter. The clean tech startups and innovators we work with need more than great technology — they need frameworks for navigating regulatory uncertainty, wildfire risk, and shifting capital markets. Foresight isn’t a luxury; it’s infrastructure for decision-making.

Wires & Fires: Electricity, Insurance, and California’s Economic Future

One of the most sobering sessions I attended was Wires & Fires: The Intersection of Electricity, Insurance Markets, and a Resilient California Economy, presented by Pleiades Strategy and the Natural Resources Defense Council as part of the Pleiades Salon series.

The panel laid bare a difficult reality: Californians are caught between rising electricity costs and skyrocketing insurance premiums, both driven by climate change. Ratepayers are absorbing billions in wildfire safety and liability costs. Insurance policyholders face higher bills or outright cancellations as wildfires threaten their communities. The FAIR Plan — California’s insurer of last resort — is growing rapidly, potentially becoming the state’s largest insurer. And at the end of the line, local and state governments are covering firefighting, disaster response, and rebuilding costs while investing comparatively little in prevention.

The expert conversation brought together energy, insurance, and policy perspectives to explore how California can build a cleaner, safer grid and a more insurable state. For anyone working in clean energy in California, this session was a critical reminder that the energy transition doesn’t happen in isolation — it’s entangled with wildfire policy, insurance markets, and economic affordability in ways that demand cross-sector solutions.

Achieving a Net-Zero Transportation Future

Transportation is the leading source of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States and one of the largest expenses for American families, consuming roughly 15 percent of most household budgets. The Money, Planning, People, Policy panel — also part of the Pleiades Salon — tackled the question of what it actually takes to build a net-zero transportation system.

The discussion brought together experts and policymakers working on the front lines of transportation transformation — from local transit funding fights for Muni and BART’s future in the Bay Area, to the uncertain trajectory of electric vehicle deployment, to rethinking land-use planning at a fundamental level. The panel emphasized that achieving net-zero transportation requires mobilizing four critical ingredients: money, planning, people, and policy. None of them can be skipped.

This is core territory for CleanStart. Our work on clean transportation — from CARB’s incentive programs and the SHIFT initiative to emerging clean aviation technologies — is part of this larger systems puzzle. The panel reinforced that turning climate ambition into actual infrastructure is messy, urgent, on-the-ground work.

The Clean Economy: Opportunities Rising

I also attended E2’s The Clean Economy: Opportunities Rising event, co-hosted with the SF Chamber of Commerce, Chambers for Innovation and Clean Energy, and the Clean Energy Leadership Institute (CELI). Held at 9Zero, the evening featured a fireside chat with Kate Gordon — former Senior Advisor to U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and to Governor Gavin Newsom — and E2 Executive Director Bob Keefe, who discussed his new book Clean Economy NOW.

A panel followed featuring Nancy Pfund of DBL Partners, Samantha Grassle of Elemental Impact, and Apoorv Bhargava of WeaveGrid, alongside CARB Chair Lauren Sanchez, who highlighted state action driving innovation — including the leveraging of California’s bedrock Cap-and-Invest program. The panel was moderated by CELI Executive Director Richenda Van Leeuwen.

The through-line was clear: despite headwinds from Washington, D.C., California’s clean economy continues to generate innovation, jobs, and economic growth. Smart state policy, coupled with private and public investment, is creating real opportunities. For CleanStart, this panel underscored why our work connecting clean tech startups with the policy and capital ecosystem is so important.

9Zero: The De Facto Hub of Climate Week

If there was a single physical center of gravity for SF Climate Week 2026, it was 9Zero Climate Innovation Hub at 350 California Street. As the Official Hub of SFCW for the third consecutive year, 9Zero hosted dozens of events and welcomed thousands of visitors through its doors — and that was just the daytime programming.

After hours, 9Zero became the de facto networking hub of the entire week. Hallway conversations, impromptu introductions, and late-evening exchanges over drinks connected founders with investors, policymakers with engineers, and advocates with operators in ways that no single panel or keynote could replicate. Some of the most valuable conversations I had all week happened in those informal moments at 9Zero — the kind of serendipitous connections that make in-person gatherings irreplaceable.

For a community of founders, investors, scientists, and innovators working to drive climate action, 9Zero embodies exactly the kind of collaborative infrastructure the clean energy ecosystem needs.

Key Takeaways for CleanStart

Across the sessions I attended, several themes kept surfacing:

The data-center energy boom is reshaping clean energy priorities. Battery storage, grid reliability, and long-duration technologies are no longer “nice to have” — they’re essential infrastructure for a digital economy. Clean energy providers need to think bigger about scale and speed.

California’s wildfire, insurance, and energy affordability challenges are deeply interconnected. Solving any one of them requires addressing all three. The clean energy transition must account for ratepayer costs, infrastructure resilience, and insurance market dynamics simultaneously.

Net-zero transportation demands more than technology. Funding, planning, workforce development, and policy alignment all have to move together. The Bay Area’s transit future — and California’s broader EV and clean transportation strategy — depends on this coordination.

Foresight and resilience frameworks are becoming essential tools for climate capital. Investors and builders alike are moving beyond optimism-based planning toward scenario-tested, systems-aware strategies.

California’s clean economy is growing despite federal headwinds. State policy, particularly CARB’s leadership and the Cap-and-Invest program, continues to drive innovation and attract investment. The business case for clean energy in California is strong and getting stronger.

Get Involved

SF Climate Week demonstrated that the clean energy transition is accelerating — and that California remains at the forefront. Here’s how you can stay engaged:

Connect with CleanStart: Learn more about our work advancing clean energy, clean transportation, and clean technology in California at CleanStart.org. Sign up for our newsletter and join an upcoming CleanStart Perspectives webinar to hear directly from the innovators and policymakers shaping the transition.

Contact your state legislators: Policies that support clean energy investment, grid resilience, insurance reform, and transportation electrification need champions in Sacramento. Let your representatives know these issues matter to you.

Explore the Climate Week community: Climate Week Sacramento is right around the corner.  If you missed SFCW this year, start planning for 2027. Organizations like 9Zero, E2, and the Clean Energy Leadership Institute offer year-round programming and community for anyone working on climate solutions.

It Wasn’t All Work

Networking Opportunities were frequent in the evening. I ran into Deep Dive Accelerator Alumni, Leslie Shariden of Planet Cents, at the Social Impact SF Climate Week Mixer where entrepreneurs all got a chance to pitch. Leslie pitched Planet Cents and I even pitched CleanStart. There was the popular Investor & Founder networking event at 9zero and Heatmap News put on the Heatmap House Party on the Historic Klamath Ship.

Leslie Shariden, Planet Cents

Want to get involved in Climate Week in Sacramento!  Sign up now for the Capital Valleys Forum on May 8th and visit Sac Climate Week’s site. 

Capital Valleys Forum

Sac Climate Week

Thomas Hall

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Thomas is the Executive Director of CleanStart. Thomas has a strong background in supporting small businesses, leadership, financial management and is proficient in working with nonprofits. He has a BS in Finance and a BA in Economics from California State University, Chico. Thomas has a passion for sustainability and a commitment to supporting non-profits in the region.

Sponsors

SMUD
ChicoSTART

10 Bold Predictions for Cleantech in 2025

10 Bold Predictions for Cleantech in 2025

The clean-tech landscape is always evolving, shaped by market forces, innovation, and policy changes. Despite the uncertainties of the past year, we’re putting forth 10 daring (yet optimistic) predictions for 2025. See if you agree!

1.  US Lithium prices will fall below $8,000/MT.

There was much hand-wringing when lithium carbonate hit $68,000/MT in 2022 and seemingly imperiled the popularity of EVs.  As usual, people ignored that high prices bring forward more supply.  In 2023, prices were down to $46,000/MT on average.  By the end of 2024, the price dipped to $9,540/MT. The addition of more supply and softening of demand due to the change in US policy toward subsidizing EVs will drive prices below $8,000/MT in the coming year, getting close to the $6,000/MT paid in 2017.  (Source:  Statista.com)

2.  Battery prices will dip below $90/kWh 

Lithium-ion battery pack prices for EVs have been a bellwether indicator of the momentum toward replacing ICE vehicles.  These prices have been on a steep 92% decline since 2010 when they stood at $1,439/kWh.  Their costs have dropped every time the number of batteries deployed in the real world has doubled. With the upsurge in batteries used in stationary storage, this learning curve effect has been amplified.  According to Bloomberg NEF, the average cost in 2024 was $115/kWh, with a dip under $100/kWh by year end.  With the drop in lithium prices and the introduction of non-lithium batteries, we see this curve continuing to decline.

Drop in Battery Pack Prices ($/kWh)
2010 1,439
2015 463
2020 165
2023 144
2024 115

Source:  BloombergNEF 2024

3.  The nuclear-AI mega-data center connection will fade

Last year saw a burst in enthusiasm by AI data center developers to invest in nuclear power as a way to satisfy their voracious appetite for clean power.  But they will soon discover that contrary to their current opinion, nuclear options are not available in time to meet their needs.  Nuclear fission plants have always involved more delays and costs than expected, which will still be true even for restarting idle nuclear plants. Other options will gain momentum.  Google has chosen to go with hydrogen and fuel cells.  Solar/wind plus storage is still in play.  Now, the oil majors want to put forward a carbon-neutral solution using natural gas and cogeneration plants that have carbon capture and sequestration as part of the plan.  Making data centers more efficient with a new generation of less power-hungry chips or more precise demand management will also figure into the solution.  The one to watch will be the restart Unit 1 of the Three Mile Island plant, owned by Constellation Energy.  It seems a simple proposition on the surface, but we predict many surprises will chill enthusiasm for proceeding with it.  

4.  Carbon pricing in North America will remain very volatile

The total amount of carbon offsets traded is relatively low and one of the reasons seems to be that their prices swing too widely over the year.  It creates risks for buyers.  Many analysts see carbon markets stabilizing in 2025.  We do not. The turmoil created by the US elections will continue to swing carbon prices by a factor of 2 from low to high.  We would love to be wrong about this, but our heads say it won’t happen.  We do think, however, that the actions by CARB to tighten restrictions on emissions and on the allowable amount of fossil carbon in fuels will lift both prices.

 5.  30% of new vehicle sales will be ZEV.

In 2023 we went from 20% to 25%, but in the third quarter of 2024, we were only at 26.4%. As ZEVs become more and more standardized and chargers become more widely available, we’re seeing these vehicles’ adoption rapidly. With the introduction of options across all price ranges, we believe that commuters looking for a new car will inevitably give in to the increased efficiency of ZEVs. We also believe that the incentives for those leasing EVs will remain, despite the negative attitudes from the new administration.

6.  The cost of building solar will be lower to 55% of its cost per MW from 2014. 

According to SEIA, the cost in 2024 was 63% of what it was in 2014. With the aid of intelligent design software to cut installation costs, we’ll see explosive growth in solar technologies and ease/cost of manufacturing, particularly in residential solar and small-scale installations.

7.  We’ll have only 225,000 out of the 250,000 chargers that Governor Newsom planned on.

As of August 2024, California had installed over 150,000 electric vehicle (EV) chargers statewide, including 137,648 Level 2 chargers and 14,708 fast chargers. This was a huge jump compared to the 105,012 of 2023.  In December 2024, the California Energy Commission (CEC) approved a $1.4 billion investment plan to accelerate progress on the state’s EV charging and hydrogen refueling goals. This plan aims to deploy infrastructure for light, medium, and heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles across California. Still, we’re not confident that the available labor will allow them to double annual charger installations.

8.  Global Carbon Trading will be announced in 2025, but not started.

The mechanisms for a global carbon market have been agreed upon.  At COP29 countries agreed on how carbon markets will operate under the Paris Agreement, making country-to-country trading of carbon credits possible. However, this doesn’t mean anything will happen right away. The agreement is there, but the technical work is still needed. A global carbon trading market won’t happen in 2025. Expect big carbon trading announcements late in 2025 after the technicals are hammered out.  https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/cop-29-global-carbon-market-making

9.  SMUD will announce a significant geothermal expansion

Geothermal is now getting renewed interest as a source of 24/7 carbon-free power.  New technologies are on the market to develop new or expand existing geothermal plants.  Fervo Energy has been in the news for its new use of fracking and water injection to expand the areas that could exploit shallow hot spots that do not generate steam.  More traction is being gained as well with successful demo projects to validate their technology in the past year.   Our candidate for doing something significant is SMUD.   They already use geothermal in The Geysers for >14% of their power supply and seem able to move faster than their colleagues.  The California Public Utilities Commission adopted a procurement strategy that includes adding up to 1 GW of geothermal.  However, geothermal projects in California have an additional obstacle, overcoming opposition to drilling projects that involve techniques similar to those in oil and gas development that have generated restrictions on their use.  But look for SMUD as the first to move to announce an expansion of its geothermal capacity in 2025.

10.  Offshore wind will pick up worldwide, but adoption will falter in California.

Around the world offshore wind is being pursued, because it allows for bigger turbines and has consistent wind, meaning more generation and higher capacity factors. However, offshore wind will make little progress in California in the next few years.   California’s difficult ocean floor and inevitable environmental reviews require significant innovation and care.  Without the continued push from the federal government, the big plans for 25 GW of floating offshore systems will wilt.  Much of the state push for deep offshore wind farms was based on the premise that sitting on land with the equivalent capacity in solar plus storage would be too difficult.  However, we expect that premise to be challenged.  Solar + plus storage is too fast and low priced and will get even faster and lower priced. The primary thing slowing down the slowing down of renewables on the grid is the grid interconnection, which FERC, CAISO, and WECC are working on accelerating. The same grid problem plagues offshore wind.  It’s a race to see who has the best options and will think Big Wind will falter.   But small wind, more appropriate in sites nearer shore, and unit sizes of 10 MW or less may find a way to thread the needle and get a foothold. 

What’s Your Take?
Do you agree with our predictions? Join the conversation and share your thoughts on the future of cleantech! Subscribe to our newsletter for exclusive updates, event invites, and industry news!

Gary Simon

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Gary Simon chairs the CleanStart Board, bringing with him a wealth of experience from over 45 years in business, government, and non-profit sectors. Gary applies his deep understanding and experience to support the growth of clean energy initiatives and startups. His work is instrumental in guiding the organization towards achieving its goals of promoting sustainable energy solutions.

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ChicoSTART
RiverCity Bank
Moss Adams logo

2024 Clean Tech Predictions: Hits, Misses, and Surprises

2024 Clean Tech Predictions: Hits, Misses, and Surprises

Our 2024 Predictions Score: 6.5 Out of 11—See How We Fared!

Our bold predictions for 2024 were a little too bold–but we try to be provocative.  Still, we got 5 of 11 right, 3 partially right, and 3 dead wrong.  The biggest surprise was how much investment landed in the region for making captured carbon dioxide into fuels and chemicals.  We were off by a factor of at least 4.  The biggest miss was about rooftop solar costs.  They went up not down. Find out more as we score ourselves below. 

1. Higher PG&E Rates Will Open New Opportunities For Rooftop Solar to Rebound

Somewhat correct.  The boom has mostly been in adding storage systems on new installations and retrofitting existing ones.  But the overall rate of installations of rooftop solar currently are low.  There was a burst of activity as customers able to have the old NEM 2.0 rates grandfathered rushed to get equipment installed.  There were some bright spots. Through California’s 2024 legislative activity, solar customers are indeed gaining new incentives for energy storage solutions. The CPUC’s expansions to community solar and new energy storage initiatives—like the Disadvantaged Community Green Tariff (DAC-GT)—support both new and existing solar users, especially those in underserved areas. This allows low-income households to offset their energy costs while gaining access to solar-generated energy without the need for individual installations.
Additionally, Assembly Bill 1373 enhances the landscape for existing solar customers by promoting large-scale storage options, allowing households with solar systems to store excess daytime energy more effectively. However, none of these reversed the downward trend. 

2.  Texas Will Make New Solar Installations Twice As Fast As California

Correct.  Not only has California slipped behind Texas, it appears that, once the full-year data are published, California will also rank behind Florida.  

Total Solar Installations in MW (Utility-Scale and Customer-Owned)
State 2022 2023 First half 2024
Texas 4,898 11,728 5,459
Florida 2,067 3,220 2,942
California 5,115 6,359 2,292

Source:  Solar Energy Industries Association, Sept. 9, 2024

Texas has also overtaken California in 2024 as the leading state for utility-scale solar energy, adding a significant 3,293 MW of new solar capacity by mid-year. Texas now leads the U.S. with 21,932 MW of utility-scale solar, capturing about 20% of the country’s total solar capacity. This shift aligns with previous predictions that Texas would rapidly expand in this area, as large-scale installations in California face limitations, particularly due to curtailments during times of peak solar generation.  California remains focused on integrating more storage to handle excess generation, which could help it regain momentum in utility-scale solar growth down the line

3. The Installed Costs of Residential Solar Will Decline Once Again

Wrong.  It went up instead.  The cost of residential solar has jumped to the highest it’s been in 8 years, sitting at $5.18, just a cent below the $5.19 of 2016. California’s shifting policies, particularly with the NEM 3.0 adjustment, have dampened demand, contributing to higher prices as solar installers navigate regulatory changes and costlier installation logistics. More than 22,000 solar jobs have been lost since NEM 3.0 was introduced, which is 22% of all solar jobs in California.

4. Nationwide There Will Be Over $250 Million in Investment in Carbon Dioxide Utilization Projects, Creating Significant Amounts of Renewable Fuels And Chemicals

Correct.  There has been a notable increase in funding for carbon dioxide utilization projects in the U.S. aimed at transforming CO₂ emissions into renewable fuels and chemicals, driven by both public and private sector interest. The Department of Energy’s Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (OCED) recently announced a substantial $1.3 billion funding initiative to support transformational projects that aim to reduce emissions significantly. This funding alone is far above our expectations, but there are smaller-scale opportunities worth highlighting. For example, the DOE has earmarked $41 million for projects specifically focused on renewable-to-liquids (RtL) technology, which leverages renewable energy, water, and CO₂ to produce liquid fuels. This approach aligns with similar efforts made by companies like Infinium, a Sacramento-headquartered venture that is focused on producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from captured CO₂. SAF is particularly advantageous for decarbonizing the aviation industry, which has limited alternatives to conventional fuels.
The National Academies have also highlighted the potential for CO₂ to serve as a raw material for sustainable chemical manufacturing, emphasizing the need to address research gaps in efficiency and scalability for these technologies to become commercially viable.

5.  Two More High-Power EV Charging Stations Will Begin To Be Built in The Region With Capacities Over 10 MW

Half-right.  The Sacramento County WattEV Innovative Freight Terminal (SWIFT), located near I-5 and south of the Sacramento International Airport had already been announced.  Voltera this year announced plans to develop two new charging locations in California, specifically designed to meet the needs of zero-emission vehicle fleets. One of those is in West Sacramento.  While other sites are under development, nothing more was announced in 2024.  So, one out of two.  Not too bad.

6.  New Investments in Clean Tech Companies in The Region Will Top $150 Million

Correct, but underestimated.  We undershot this one, thanks to one of Sacramento’s most successful new companies, Infinium. In 2024, the Greater Sacramento Valley has indeed seen clean tech investments continue to surge, with aggregate funding now estimated at well over $1.5 billion, driven by a combination of substantial private and public sector support. A significant portion of the region’s investment momentum comes from Infinium’s $1.1 billion funding deal with Brookfield Asset Management. This investment is intended to accelerate Infinium’s development of eFuels, synthetic fuels produced from captured waste carbon, and clean hydrogen, which is critical for supporting California’s clean fuel transition goals.

In addition, SMUD received a $10 million state grant to support a long-duration battery storage project in partnership with ESS Tech, Inc. And CalSEED awarded $150,000 grants to seven companies in the Sacramento Valley, including three in Davis, aimed at advancing clean energy innovations. 

7.  A Third Long-Duration Energy Storage Project Will Be Launched in Northern California

Bingo.  Hydrostor is developing the Willow Rock Energy Storage Center in Kern County, a 500 MW Advanced Compressed Air Energy Storage (A-CAES) facility. Set to provide 4,000 MWh of storage, this facility is designed for eight hours of energy output, making it ideal for grid support during periods of low renewable generation. Hydrostor’s system utilizes underground caverns to store compressed air, which is then released to generate electricity, offering a reliable alternative to traditional battery storage.

8.  The Value Of an Offset Ton of Carbon Dioxide in California Markets Will Increase Slowly

Half-right.  The price of carbon allowances in the cap and trade program has increased modestly, while in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits market, the price has been declining. However, in both markets there has been volatility, more so in the LCFS case.  

Annual Average $/ton CO2
Year Cap-and-Trade Allowances LCFS Credit Prices
2024 $35.23 $62
2023 $33.03 $75
2022 $28.45 $125

9.  It Will Be The Year of the USED Electric Car

Correct!  But…In 2024, the used electric vehicle (EV) market experienced significant growth, driven by the increasing turnover of fleet vehicles and a cumulative total of over 4.7 million plug-in hybrid and fully electric cars sold in the U.S. This surge has made pre-owned EVs more accessible to a broader range of consumers.  The influx of used EVs has led to a notable decrease in prices, making them more attractive to budget-conscious buyers. For instance, the average price of a used EV in August 2024 was $26,839, which is 11.4% less than comparable gas-powered cars and 9.8% less than hybrids. This price drop is attributed to an oversupply of new cars, a slowdown in EV sales, and pricing incentives on aging inventory.

Despite the growing appeal of used EVs, maintenance and repair remain significant challenges. The specialized nature of EV components requires technicians with specific training and expertise. However, there is a limited availability of such technicians, leading to potential difficulties in servicing these vehicles.

10.  Commitments to the First Small (less than 20 MW) Offshore Wind Deployments Will Be Made for a Site Off the North Coast

Didn’t happen.  RWE from Germany is the big player in the North Coast, planning to install 1600 MW of wind turbines on huge floating platforms 20 miles offshore for its Canopy Project, but not until the middle of the next decade.  We still believe something smaller will go faster, but with the antipathy toward offshore wind in the new Administration, that may be true only if it were in State waters. 

11. The EV Premium Will Disappear

Wrong.  The anticipated decline in electric vehicle (EV) prices has not continued in 2024. Instead, the gap between EV prices and the overall new car market has widened compared to recent years. In 2024, the average price paid for a new EV is 16% higher than the average for all new vehicles. This marks a reversal from 2023, when EV prices were closer to parity, averaging only 8% more than the overall market. In 2022, EV prices were around 15% higher than the average ICE car.  One part of the reason for the trend is that despite the introduction of affordable EVs, most new introductions to the space have been very expensive, fully-loaded models which is dramatically raising the “average price paid” for an EV.  At the same time, BYD has introduced a small car with a modest range that sells for $13,000 in mainland China.

Key Takeaways

  • Carbon Utilization Projects: Surpassed funding expectations and proved a bright spot in cleantech innovation.
  • Solar Trends: Storage retrofits and community programs are gaining traction but haven’t reversed the rooftop solar decline.
  • EV Market: Used EV sales are booming, but affordability challenges persist in the new car market.

2024 taught us that even in a volatile industry, cleantech resilience and innovation continue to push boundaries. Stay tuned for our 2025 predictions—what surprises will the future hold?

Breakthroughs in Long-Duration Energy Storage?

Breakthroughs in Long-Duration Energy Storage?

One of the biggest challenges for building an electricity system based entirely on renewable has been the problem of what to do to protect the system in the rare situation where a big transmission line goes down or a big source of generation is suddenly taken off-line or in shifting energy from season to season.  Smoothing out the daily mismatches between supply and demand seems now to be on the way to a workable solution with some combination of storage lasting up to 4 hours and more extensive load management.  Providing reliable 100-hour energy storage has been more of a problem.  The current solution is to keep an inventory of conventional fossil-fuel fired plants at the ready, perhaps with some on-site stored liquid renewable fuel to offset the use of fossil-fuels as much as possible.  That solution seems inherently unsatisfying since it can continue the burning of fossil natural gas. 

Now two companies have stepped forward with some interesting alternatives—one based on rust and one based on compressing carbon dioxide.  The question is whether these are going to be able to meet the claims being made as reasonable solutions.

 Form Energy

Form Energy is well-along in developing its iron-air battery system which works by cycling iron from a metallic form to an oxidized form (better known as rust).   It has raised $818 million from investors, with $450 million in its Series E in October.  That’s a whopping amount considering they are only a 12-person company and haven’t yet done a commercial demo at scale, with one planned in 2023 with Great River Energy in Massachusetts (1 MW discharge capacity and 150 MWh of total stored energy).  Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos are big fans and investors.  With all that investor enthusiasm, is this the big breakthrough everyone is hoping for?

Iron-air batteries are not a new idea.  NASA was interested in them in the 1960s.  They certainly used cheap materials, but cycle life was a problem, with only 20-50 cycles being achieved.  Form Energy says it has conquered that problem with a system that should be good for 5000 cycles.  Their primary innovation is a “proton pump” which efficiently replenishes protons (hydrogen ions) back into the electrolyte.  They also have relatively low power and energy density, which means no one should expect to see them in cars.  But for long-duration storage at a fixed site, they could be very attractive.  They are aiming for an 85% round-trip efficiency, but apparently are not there yet.  If you want more technical detail, delivered in a fun way, go to Matt Ferrell’s site “Undecided” when he covered Form EnergyYou can read a critical look at the system in this article.

Form Energy claims their solution will be 1/10th the cost of lithium ion storage in terms of $/kWh.  Their target is $20/kWh of capacity but of course lithium-ion costs are still coming down as well.  They readily admit this will only occur “at scale” and scale is what they are trying to achieve.  They have done only relatively small-scale tests at this point.  The $818 million is going to optimizing a manufacturing process and doing stress testing to assure the long-life of systems.  Lots of finger crossing going on.  It feels a bit like a “Hail Mary” with everything riding on the 2023 demo.

The second is a system developed by Italian company Energy Dome that cycles carbon dioxide from a liquid to a gas and back again, using the pressure of the vaporized carbon dioxide to spin a turbine-generator.  There are no technology advances involved.  It is an application of existing technology.  The idea is like Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) systems, but with a twist.  

To get the most out of CAES requires liquefying air to get the best energy density.  However, that requires cryogenic temperatures which require a lot of energy to reach.  Carbon dioxide liquefies at room temperature with the application of about 1000 psi in pressure.  That’s not all that much—nowhere near the 5,000-10,000 psi planned for use in gaseous hydrogen storage, for example.

Energy Dome works by storing liquefied carbon dioxide in a series of small high-pressure tanks and then extracting the energy by heating and expanding the gas through a turbine that powers a generator.  The liquid expands about 600-fold in volume.  The expanded gas goes into a big “bag” that looks like a blimp sitting on the ground.  The carbon dioxide is at atmospheric pressure, so the blimp doesn’t have to be very strong.  To recharge the system, the carbon dioxide is taken into the turbine-generator working in reverse—the generator becomes a motor and the turbine becomes a compressor.  

There are some important details.  Compressing the gas heats it up.  The gas needs to be cooled back to room temperature to get the carbon dioxide to liquefy.  In reverse, heat is needed to get the liquid to evaporate quickly.  Energy Dome stores hot and cold fluid to reduce the use of on-site energy to do these two functions.  Still the system is more of an energy user than the Form Energy battery, reflected in the 75-80% round-trip efficiency that Energy Dome is targeting.

The primary question with Energy Dome is about cost, not technology.  The system requires a lot plumbing, tanks, valves, turbines, etc.  While all those are commodity products with known costs, it is the total cost of the system as installed that is important.  Energy Dome has partnered with a major European wind farm company, Ørsted.  The plan is to build a 20 MW system with 10 hours of storage and have it operational in 2024.  Expanding to 100 hours duration is just a matter of adding more pressurized tanks and more “blimps” to the existing compression/expansion equipment.  The 2024 demo will be key to seeing whether cost can be contained enough to make this a reasonable solution.

Form Energy is certainly winning the enthusiasm from clean tech investors.  Still it has a lot to prove about its technology and about its costs.  Energy Dome needs to contain its capital costs.  Maybe both will work out.  We’ll come back to this next year.

Thomas Hall

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Gary Simon is the Chair of CleanStart’s Board. A seasoned energy executive and entrepreneur with 45 years of experience in business, government, and non-profits.

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IRA is an Investment in Battery Innovation

IRA is an Investment in Battery Innovation

Among many things, the inflation reduction act (IRA) is a big investment into our domestic battery production.  To get the details, you can read about the IRA from Moss Adams here. 

Here is what has us the most excited:

  • The establishment of a $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund for the Environmental Protection Agency to allocate towards emissions reductions projects. 
  • $250 Billion in Energy Infrastructure Loan Guarantees
  • $40 Billion in Clean Energy Loan Guarantees
  • The multitude of guarantees and incentives to build domestic battery capacity

We will cover more later, but right now I want to highlight how the EV incentive may drive investment and innovation in domestic battery production. The requirements for batteries in EVs lead to increasing investment in innovation. There are two parts.

  1. Battery materials must be sourced in the United States or a country that has a free trader agreement with the United States.
  2. Batteries must be assembled in the United States, Canada, or Mexico. 

This will limit what Electric Vehicles qualify for the incentive, but it won’t eliminate them

Batteries qualify by having a certain percentage (escalating over time) meet the requirements. There is no clarity on the requirements currently. Everyone is waiting on the Department of Transportation and the Treasury to make the final rules. Whatever they end up being, there is likely not enough capacity for materials and assembly to meet the potential demand. With high demand and shortages of materials, there will be investment to expand supply and innovation to increase efficiency/ reduce cost. Innovation in battery design and manufacturing should boom. The IRA is providing over $100 Billion in loans to speed up the transition. 

We have talked about Battery Advancements in the past. Now, we hope to see these advancements make it to the practical world.

New battery design, and chemistry are where I am excited about innovation. So far in the US there have been over% 15 Billion committed to building domestic capacity.  PEM Motion has a good Battery Atlas for Europe here. Over the past year, there were major investments by vehicle OEMs Tesla, Toyota, GM, Ford, and VW to build domestic battery capacity. They are partnering with major battery companies like SK Industrials, and LG Chem, who are also building plants of their own. Most analysts think this is not enough and we may need up to $100 Billion in battery manufacturing. With that amount of investment, slight improvements in battery design and manufacturing go a long way. Even with two Giga factories, Tesla is looking at investing $10 Billion more to keep their advantage.  

While the energy transition increases demand for storage, the investment from the IRA should get us ahead, increasing competition and building needed capacity.

Thomas Hall

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Thomas is the Executive Director of CleanStart. Thomas has a strong background in supporting small businesses, leadership, financial management and is proficient in working with nonprofits. He has a BS in Finance and a BA in Economics from California State University, Chico. Thomas has a passion for sustainability and a commitment to supporting non-profits in the region.

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