The clean-tech landscape is always evolving, shaped by market forces, innovation, and policy changes. Despite the uncertainties of the past year, we’re putting forth 10 daring (yet optimistic) predictions for 2025. See if you agree!

1.  US Lithium prices will fall below $8,000/MT.

There was much hand-wringing when lithium carbonate hit $68,000/MT in 2022 and seemingly imperiled the popularity of EVs.  As usual, people ignored that high prices bring forward more supply.  In 2023, prices were down to $46,000/MT on average.  By the end of 2024, the price dipped to $9,540/MT. The addition of more supply and softening of demand due to the change in US policy toward subsidizing EVs will drive prices below $8,000/MT in the coming year, getting close to the $6,000/MT paid in 2017.  (Source:  Statista.com)

2.  Battery prices will dip below $90/kWh 

Lithium-ion battery pack prices for EVs have been a bellwether indicator of the momentum toward replacing ICE vehicles.  These prices have been on a steep 92% decline since 2010 when they stood at $1,439/kWh.  Their costs have dropped every time the number of batteries deployed in the real world has doubled. With the upsurge in batteries used in stationary storage, this learning curve effect has been amplified.  According to Bloomberg NEF, the average cost in 2024 was $115/kWh, with a dip under $100/kWh by year end.  With the drop in lithium prices and the introduction of non-lithium batteries, we see this curve continuing to decline.

Source:  BloombergNEF 2024

3.  The nuclear-AI mega-data center connection will fade

Last year saw a burst in enthusiasm by AI data center developers to invest in nuclear power as a way to satisfy their voracious appetite for clean power.  But they will soon discover that contrary to their current opinion, nuclear options are not available in time to meet their needs.  Nuclear fission plants have always involved more delays and costs than expected, which will still be true even for restarting idle nuclear plants. Other options will gain momentum.  Google has chosen to go with hydrogen and fuel cells.  Solar/wind plus storage is still in play.  Now, the oil majors want to put forward a carbon-neutral solution using natural gas and cogeneration plants that have carbon capture and sequestration as part of the plan.  Making data centers more efficient with a new generation of less power-hungry chips or more precise demand management will also figure into the solution.  The one to watch will be the restart Unit 1 of the Three Mile Island plant, owned by Constellation Energy.  It seems a simple proposition on the surface, but we predict many surprises will chill enthusiasm for proceeding with it.  

4.  Carbon pricing in North America will remain very volatile

The total amount of carbon offsets traded is relatively low and one of the reasons seems to be that their prices swing too widely over the year.  It creates risks for buyers.  Many analysts see carbon markets stabilizing in 2025.  We do not. The turmoil created by the US elections will continue to swing carbon prices by a factor of 2 from low to high.  We would love to be wrong about this, but our heads say it won’t happen.  We do think, however, that the actions by CARB to tighten restrictions on emissions and on the allowable amount of fossil carbon in fuels will lift both prices.

 5.  30% of new vehicle sales will be ZEV.

In 2023 we went from 20% to 25%, but in the third quarter of 2024, we were only at 26.4%. As ZEVs become more and more standardized and chargers become more widely available, we’re seeing these vehicles’ adoption rapidly. With the introduction of options across all price ranges, we believe that commuters looking for a new car will inevitably give in to the increased efficiency of ZEVs. We also believe that the incentives for those leasing EVs will remain, despite the negative attitudes from the new administration.

6.  The cost of building solar will be lower to 55% of its cost per MW from 2014. 

According to SEIA, the cost in 2024 was 63% of what it was in 2014. With the aid of intelligent design software to cut installation costs, we’ll see explosive growth in solar technologies and ease/cost of manufacturing, particularly in residential solar and small-scale installations.

7.  We’ll have only 225,000 out of the 250,000 chargers that Governor Newsom planned on.

As of August 2024, California had installed over 150,000 electric vehicle (EV) chargers statewide, including 137,648 Level 2 chargers and 14,708 fast chargers. This was a huge jump compared to the 105,012 of 2023.  In December 2024, the California Energy Commission (CEC) approved a $1.4 billion investment plan to accelerate progress on the state’s EV charging and hydrogen refueling goals. This plan aims to deploy infrastructure for light, medium, and heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles across California. Still, we’re not confident that the available labor will allow them to double annual charger installations.

8.  Global Carbon Trading will be announced in 2025, but not started.

The mechanisms for a global carbon market have been agreed upon.  At COP29 countries agreed on how carbon markets will operate under the Paris Agreement, making country-to-country trading of carbon credits possible. However, this doesn’t mean anything will happen right away. The agreement is there, but the technical work is still needed. A global carbon trading market won’t happen in 2025. Expect big carbon trading announcements late in 2025 after the technicals are hammered out.  https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/cop-29-global-carbon-market-making

9.  SMUD will announce a significant geothermal expansion

Geothermal is now getting renewed interest as a source of 24/7 carbon-free power.  New technologies are on the market to develop new or expand existing geothermal plants.  Fervo Energy has been in the news for its new use of fracking and water injection to expand the areas that could exploit shallow hot spots that do not generate steam.  More traction is being gained as well with successful demo projects to validate their technology in the past year.   Our candidate for doing something significant is SMUD.   They already use geothermal in The Geysers for >14% of their power supply and seem able to move faster than their colleagues.  The California Public Utilities Commission adopted a procurement strategy that includes adding up to 1 GW of geothermal.  However, geothermal projects in California have an additional obstacle, overcoming opposition to drilling projects that involve techniques similar to those in oil and gas development that have generated restrictions on their use.  But look for SMUD as the first to move to announce an expansion of its geothermal capacity in 2025.

10.  Offshore wind will pick up worldwide, but adoption will falter in California.

Around the world offshore wind is being pursued, because it allows for bigger turbines and has consistent wind, meaning more generation and higher capacity factors. However, offshore wind will make little progress in California in the next few years.   California’s difficult ocean floor and inevitable environmental reviews require significant innovation and care.  Without the continued push from the federal government, the big plans for 25 GW of floating offshore systems will wilt.  Much of the state push for deep offshore wind farms was based on the premise that sitting on land with the equivalent capacity in solar plus storage would be too difficult.  However, we expect that premise to be challenged.  Solar + plus storage is too fast and low priced and will get even faster and lower priced. The primary thing slowing down the slowing down of renewables on the grid is the grid interconnection, which FERC, CAISO, and WECC are working on accelerating. The same grid problem plagues offshore wind.  It’s a race to see who has the best options and will think Big Wind will falter.   But small wind, more appropriate in sites nearer shore, and unit sizes of 10 MW or less may find a way to thread the needle and get a foothold. 

What’s Your Take?
Do you agree with our predictions? Join the conversation and share your thoughts on the future of cleantech! Subscribe to our newsletter for exclusive updates, event invites, and industry news!