Our 2024 Predictions Score: 6.5 Out of 11—See How We Fared!

Our bold predictions for 2024 were a little too bold–but we try to be provocative.  Still, we got 5 of 11 right, 3 partially right, and 3 dead wrong.  The biggest surprise was how much investment landed in the region for making captured carbon dioxide into fuels and chemicals.  We were off by a factor of at least 4.  The biggest miss was about rooftop solar costs.  They went up not down. Find out more as we score ourselves below. 

1. Higher PG&E Rates Will Open New Opportunities For Rooftop Solar to Rebound

Somewhat correct.  The boom has mostly been in adding storage systems on new installations and retrofitting existing ones.  But the overall rate of installations of rooftop solar currently are low.  There was a burst of activity as customers able to have the old NEM 2.0 rates grandfathered rushed to get equipment installed.  There were some bright spots. Through California’s 2024 legislative activity, solar customers are indeed gaining new incentives for energy storage solutions. The CPUC’s expansions to community solar and new energy storage initiatives—like the Disadvantaged Community Green Tariff (DAC-GT)—support both new and existing solar users, especially those in underserved areas. This allows low-income households to offset their energy costs while gaining access to solar-generated energy without the need for individual installations.
Additionally, Assembly Bill 1373 enhances the landscape for existing solar customers by promoting large-scale storage options, allowing households with solar systems to store excess daytime energy more effectively. However, none of these reversed the downward trend. 

2.  Texas Will Make New Solar Installations Twice As Fast As California

Correct.  Not only has California slipped behind Texas, it appears that, once the full-year data are published, California will also rank behind Florida.  

Source:  Solar Energy Industries Association, Sept. 9, 2024

Texas has also overtaken California in 2024 as the leading state for utility-scale solar energy, adding a significant 3,293 MW of new solar capacity by mid-year. Texas now leads the U.S. with 21,932 MW of utility-scale solar, capturing about 20% of the country’s total solar capacity. This shift aligns with previous predictions that Texas would rapidly expand in this area, as large-scale installations in California face limitations, particularly due to curtailments during times of peak solar generation.  California remains focused on integrating more storage to handle excess generation, which could help it regain momentum in utility-scale solar growth down the line

3. The Installed Costs of Residential Solar Will Decline Once Again

Wrong.  It went up instead.  The cost of residential solar has jumped to the highest it’s been in 8 years, sitting at $5.18, just a cent below the $5.19 of 2016. California’s shifting policies, particularly with the NEM 3.0 adjustment, have dampened demand, contributing to higher prices as solar installers navigate regulatory changes and costlier installation logistics. More than 22,000 solar jobs have been lost since NEM 3.0 was introduced, which is 22% of all solar jobs in California.

4. Nationwide There Will Be Over $250 Million in Investment in Carbon Dioxide Utilization Projects, Creating Significant Amounts of Renewable Fuels And Chemicals

Correct.  There has been a notable increase in funding for carbon dioxide utilization projects in the U.S. aimed at transforming CO₂ emissions into renewable fuels and chemicals, driven by both public and private sector interest. The Department of Energy’s Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (OCED) recently announced a substantial $1.3 billion funding initiative to support transformational projects that aim to reduce emissions significantly. This funding alone is far above our expectations, but there are smaller-scale opportunities worth highlighting. For example, the DOE has earmarked $41 million for projects specifically focused on renewable-to-liquids (RtL) technology, which leverages renewable energy, water, and CO₂ to produce liquid fuels. This approach aligns with similar efforts made by companies like Infinium, a Sacramento-headquartered venture that is focused on producing sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from captured CO₂. SAF is particularly advantageous for decarbonizing the aviation industry, which has limited alternatives to conventional fuels.
The National Academies have also highlighted the potential for CO₂ to serve as a raw material for sustainable chemical manufacturing, emphasizing the need to address research gaps in efficiency and scalability for these technologies to become commercially viable.

5.  Two More High-Power EV Charging Stations Will Begin To Be Built in The Region With Capacities Over 10 MW

Half-right.  The Sacramento County WattEV Innovative Freight Terminal (SWIFT), located near I-5 and south of the Sacramento International Airport had already been announced.  Voltera this year announced plans to develop two new charging locations in California, specifically designed to meet the needs of zero-emission vehicle fleets. One of those is in West Sacramento.  While other sites are under development, nothing more was announced in 2024.  So, one out of two.  Not too bad.

6.  New Investments in Clean Tech Companies in The Region Will Top $150 Million

Correct, but underestimated.  We undershot this one, thanks to one of Sacramento’s most successful new companies, Infinium. In 2024, the Greater Sacramento Valley has indeed seen clean tech investments continue to surge, with aggregate funding now estimated at well over $1.5 billion, driven by a combination of substantial private and public sector support. A significant portion of the region’s investment momentum comes from Infinium’s $1.1 billion funding deal with Brookfield Asset Management. This investment is intended to accelerate Infinium’s development of eFuels, synthetic fuels produced from captured waste carbon, and clean hydrogen, which is critical for supporting California’s clean fuel transition goals.

In addition, SMUD received a $10 million state grant to support a long-duration battery storage project in partnership with ESS Tech, Inc. And CalSEED awarded $150,000 grants to seven companies in the Sacramento Valley, including three in Davis, aimed at advancing clean energy innovations. 

7.  A Third Long-Duration Energy Storage Project Will Be Launched in Northern California

Bingo.  Hydrostor is developing the Willow Rock Energy Storage Center in Kern County, a 500 MW Advanced Compressed Air Energy Storage (A-CAES) facility. Set to provide 4,000 MWh of storage, this facility is designed for eight hours of energy output, making it ideal for grid support during periods of low renewable generation. Hydrostor’s system utilizes underground caverns to store compressed air, which is then released to generate electricity, offering a reliable alternative to traditional battery storage.

8.  The Value Of an Offset Ton of Carbon Dioxide in California Markets Will Increase Slowly

Half-right.  The price of carbon allowances in the cap and trade program has increased modestly, while in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits market, the price has been declining. However, in both markets there has been volatility, more so in the LCFS case.  

9.  It Will Be The Year of the USED Electric Car

Correct!  But…In 2024, the used electric vehicle (EV) market experienced significant growth, driven by the increasing turnover of fleet vehicles and a cumulative total of over 4.7 million plug-in hybrid and fully electric cars sold in the U.S. This surge has made pre-owned EVs more accessible to a broader range of consumers.  The influx of used EVs has led to a notable decrease in prices, making them more attractive to budget-conscious buyers. For instance, the average price of a used EV in August 2024 was $26,839, which is 11.4% less than comparable gas-powered cars and 9.8% less than hybrids. This price drop is attributed to an oversupply of new cars, a slowdown in EV sales, and pricing incentives on aging inventory.

Despite the growing appeal of used EVs, maintenance and repair remain significant challenges. The specialized nature of EV components requires technicians with specific training and expertise. However, there is a limited availability of such technicians, leading to potential difficulties in servicing these vehicles.

10.  Commitments to the First Small (less than 20 MW) Offshore Wind Deployments Will Be Made for a Site Off the North Coast

Didn’t happen.  RWE from Germany is the big player in the North Coast, planning to install 1600 MW of wind turbines on huge floating platforms 20 miles offshore for its Canopy Project, but not until the middle of the next decade.  We still believe something smaller will go faster, but with the antipathy toward offshore wind in the new Administration, that may be true only if it were in State waters. 

11. The EV Premium Will Disappear

Wrong.  The anticipated decline in electric vehicle (EV) prices has not continued in 2024. Instead, the gap between EV prices and the overall new car market has widened compared to recent years. In 2024, the average price paid for a new EV is 16% higher than the average for all new vehicles. This marks a reversal from 2023, when EV prices were closer to parity, averaging only 8% more than the overall market. In 2022, EV prices were around 15% higher than the average ICE car.  One part of the reason for the trend is that despite the introduction of affordable EVs, most new introductions to the space have been very expensive, fully-loaded models which is dramatically raising the “average price paid” for an EV.  At the same time, BYD has introduced a small car with a modest range that sells for $13,000 in mainland China.

Key Takeaways

• Carbon Utilization Projects: Surpassed funding expectations and proved a bright spot in cleantech innovation.
• Solar Trends: Storage retrofits and community programs are gaining traction but haven’t reversed the rooftop solar decline.
• EV Market: Used EV sales are booming, but affordability challenges persist in the new car market.

2024 taught us that even in a volatile industry, cleantech resilience and innovation continue to push boundaries. Stay tuned for our 2025 predictions—what surprises will the future hold?