2023 Predictions Recap

Last year we looked to make bolder predictions, many around falling prices. Well, some predictions were right, others were wrong.  There was good news from Rivian and vigorous growth in battery deployment, keeping prices high.  The PPA price wars came to an end as demand for clean energy rose and supply chains increased costs. Overall we are saying we went 4 for 10.  

You can read the prediction post here.

There will be no Level 3 Energy Emergency Alerts in California this year.

There were no Stage 3 alerts this year.  There were no Stage 2 and only one Stage 1 alerts this year (to date).  So…bullseye! 

Lithium prices will decline and finish the year below $40,000 per MT.  

Bingo!  Lithium carbonate plunged since the beginning of the year, now sitting under $20,000 per MT.  That’s a drop of 73%.  At the same time, cobalt prices dropped 36%.  Cobalt is another common ingredient in lithium-ion batteries.  Interestingly, nickel prices dropped 42% to $17,421/ton, so lithium is not much more expensive than a common commodity metal also used in batteries.  For comparison, copper is priced at about $8,265/ton (up from its low of $1,300/MT  or $0.63/lb 25 years ago).  Some analysts forecast the price of lithium will double in 2024, but we are skeptical of such a big hike in the face of several large new mines opening up.  

Private, pulsed-fusion company Helion will announce reaching significant milestones.  

Nope.  Helion did not announce reaching any new technological milestones that would trigger investors to put in more money.  However, they did sign an agreement with Microsoft to begin providing 50 MW of power by 2028.  Because the agreement is made through Constellation Energy, we guess that if the plant is not ready by 2028, Constellation will provide zero carbon power to Microsoft in another way.  However, if HeLion meets the 2028 deadline, it will likely beat the Small Modular Reactor projects to the finish line in a test of fusion vs. fission.  The slipping deadline with the SMRs has recently been in the news as the leading SMR developer NuScale has had to suspend its pioneer project in Idaho because its intended power purchasers were not willing to pay the price for the power that would make the project viable, even with heavy subsidies from the DOE. In addition, in 2023 both HeLion and our second contender, HB 11 Energy, received small contracts from DOE to continue their work.  A third challenger of note in this race is TAE Technologies in Southern California aiming at the same Proton-Boron fusion reaction, but using pulsed accelerator beams to drive the reaction instead of pulsed lasers.

Regardless of the slower-than-expected advances with any of these technologies, the opportunity they offer to bypass the building of more fission reactors with their enormous waste disposal issues makes them important.  We still like the underdogs.

Power Purchase Agreement pricing on average for either solar or wind will not exceed $50/MWh.  

Oops.  Both solar and wind projects broke the $50 barrier.  We underestimated the impact of higher inflation and the demand pressure on 3Q23 blended prices solar and wind prices.  According to recent surveys by Level Ten Energy,  these blended prices rose to $54.90/MWh, with wind at about $57.50/MWh and solar at about $51/MWh.   It looks like they will continue to rise into 2024.  

Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit prices will increase but stay below $70 for the year.  

Wrong.  Prices drifted up to near $90/ton but then came back under $75.   The average for the full year is not yet available, but it looks like it will be near $80. At the same time, the price of a carbon credit in ARB’s Cap and Trade market rose to $39/ton.  Selling credits is becoming more lucrative, with the LCFS credits about double the value of the cap-and-trade variety.  .[We can include the following chart if useful.]

Fewer than 10,000 Level 2 Charging Stations will be installed in 2023 in California.  

Sadly, this one was right. Q4 2022 had 78500 Shared and Private Level 2s installed. As of September 12, 2023 (The CEC’s last update) there are 83,597 Shared and Private Level 2s. Just over 5000 were installed. We will keep our eyes open if a more recent update comes out. On a positive note, California now has over 10,000 DC Fast Chargers. Gary and Thomas will have to revisit their debate between level 2 and DC Fast Charging.

Two EV startup companies will be acquired, one by a non-OEM.

Complete miss. We reached out of the box on this one predicting consolidation. We thought lagging OEMs would pick up a public company. OEMs like Mercedes have record years selling electric vehicles. Others like Toyota heavily invested in supply chains needed for Electric Vehicles. None have acquired one of the listed companies. But it could happen… Only Rivian showed a significant improvement in its market cap.

The Sacramento Region will attract a net zero fuel investment of>$50 Million.

It happened! Right before we published, Infinium announced $75 Million from Breakthrough Energy Ventures! 

Rivian struggles to make Amazon 10,000 Deliveries

Rivian did something none of the similar EV startups did. Beat predictions. In October, they announced Amazon had 10,000 Rivian delivery vans in service. With their exclusive Amazon deal ending, they have already signed additional fleet deals. Additionally, they have continually upped delivery predictions and through Q3 have sold more than double the Trucks and Vans as Ford and is the only company in our EV acquisition prediction to increase its market cap significantly.

Installed storage capacity in the US will double.  

Close one.  Wood Mackenzie estimates that total installed storage capacity in the US will be 24.6 GWh in 2023, a tiny bit below a doubling from 13.4 GWh.  However, we were correct that the original forecast of 30.3 GWh of storage capacity would turn out to be too high. 

In California in October, the Governor issued a statement that the state now had over 6600 MW of installed battery capacity. a tenfold increase in five years,  That would also mean it had about 16.2 GWh energy storage capacity.

The cost of an electric vehicle battery pack will fall below $140/kWh.

Not sure.  The DOE has not published its new estimates for 2023 yet.  A Goldman Sachs report provides information that indicates a modest decline in 2023 (but not below $140/kWh), with a more significant decline coming in 2024 as the lower prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel impact costs.

The Carlsen Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship at Sacramento State recently led the Global Entrepreneurship Week (GEW) activities for the fifth year, marking its significant role in regional economic growth. During the Sacramento Entrepreneurial State of the Union, Clair Whitmer of the California Office of the Small Business Advocate (CalOSBA) announced a substantial $250,000 state grant awarded to the Center. This grant is part of the Accelerate California: Inclusive Innovation Hub initiative, which supports organizations offering entrepreneurial training, coaching, and resources.

Additionally, CleanStart hosted a pitch competition, further enriching the entrepreneurial spirit of the event and providing a platform for emerging businesses to showcase their innovations. This combination of state support, community engagement, and competitive platforms like CleanStart’s pitch competition underscores the dynamic entrepreneurial landscape in the Sacramento region.

The GEW, a global initiative since 2008, involves organizations from over 200 countries hosting events attended by millions. At Sacramento State, President Luke Wood highlighted the Carlsen Center’s vital role in fostering an entrepreneurial culture and its impact on students and the community.

We had a great Spotlight Pitch event at the Carlsen Center on November 16 (and a big thanks to the crew At the Center for hosting us).  We heard from 5 investment-ready companies, all with customers, revenue, and product-market fit.  All were seeking significant investment.  Having five such companies in our clean tech hub is itself an important milestone of the progress being made in advancing cleantech products to market here. Each presenter received helpful feedback and suggestions from a panel of five investors and experts.  Everybody learned a lot and helped out.  But don’t take our word for it.  Watch our highlights clip. 

To learn how to advance your startup to do this kind of effective pitch, sign up for our next Clean Tech CEO Crash Course starting in early January.  But hurry—seats are going fast! 

∙         XeroHome—has an AI-based product for making tailored recommendations to homeowners on what clean energy investments to make, all without the need for site visits and labor-intensive audits.  Now multiple utilities across the country are using this software. And XeroHome was recently  awarded the Sustainability Innovator of the Year.

∙         LiCAP Technologies—has a better way to make batteries.  It is less expensive, it requires fewer steps, it avoids using toxic solvents, it creates thinner electrodes, it boosts the energy and power density, and extends cycle life.

∙         AscentOS—has developed software to optimize and simplify the process of selling solar and storage systems to homeowners and small businesses, getting the required permits, and scheduling the crews and materials, all to cut the cost of installations.  It is turning installers into powerhouses.

∙         JAPA—has the solution to avoid wasting time and fuel in trying to find a parking space by installing sensors and using software to tell drivers where empty spots are.  They have some big hospitals as anchor customers who love the app.

∙         Thermeshade—has the “best window shade to control heat”, because it is nearly transparent and people leave them pulled down.  In contrast, most others cut off the view through the window, so people roll them up and make them ineffective.   

As the Executive Director of CleanStart, I had the pleasure of attending the 7th annual AgTech Day, an event that perfectly encapsulates the spirit of innovation that drives the agricultural sector forward. Organized by the esteemed Center for Irrigation Technology (CIT), along with the Advanced Pumping Efficiency Program (APEP) and the Water, Energy, and Technology (WET) Center, this event is a cornerstone for those at the forefront of marrying technology with farming.

Since its inception in 2017, AgTech Day has been a beacon of progress, situated on the dynamic Fresno State Farm. This year was no different, with over 40 vendors displaying their cutting-edge solutions in a bustling trade show. Although the final program is still being fine-tuned, the buzz of anticipation was palpable, and I urge all interested parties to reserve their spots without delay.

The focus of this year’s event was unmistakably on water and irrigation innovations—a critical area given our current environmental challenges. CleanStart’s presence, with our CleanTech Connect outreach trailer, was a testament to our commitment to sharing knowledge about the ongoing energy transition.

A standout aspect of the event was the real-world demonstrations by startups working with the WET Center. Witnessing their ingenuity on actual farms was not just impressive but also inspirational. Moreover, the speakers were invaluable, offering insights into efficient water use and regulatory compliance that farmers could immediately apply to their operations.

Personal connections formed the heart of AgTech Day. Companies and farmers engage in meaningful dialogue, which is vital for nurturing business relationships. Attendees had the chance to visit projects right where the magic happens—on the farms. These field tests weren’t just demonstrations; they were proof of the innovations’ real-world efficacy.

CleanStart’s role was to guide conversations towards the opportunities presented by the energy transition. There was a notable eagerness to learn about funding opportunities and the capital investments driving these advancements. I found myself deep in the discussion about agro-voltaics, among other innovative intersections between agriculture and energy. The enthusiasm was evident, with many keen on understanding how they could integrate new technologies into their practices and benefit from available grants.

AgTech Day is a gathering where farmers and industry leaders shape the future of agriculture. It’s where technology meets tenacity, and I am already looking forward to what the next year will bring.

When you think of electric vehicles, what do you think of? Teslas? Rivians? Quiet sedans owned by the few that can currently afford them? That doesn’t connect with the diverse car culture of Sacramento today. The intersection of low-rider culture and the burgeoning field of electric vehicles (EVs) presents a unique opportunity for job creation and community engagement. ShaVolla and Carlos Rodriguez, members of the Duke’s Car Club Sacramento Chapter, has a different vision, and connected with Jaime Lemus Division Manager at Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District, to make something cool. EV Access thru EV Lowriding is an initiative to electrify a lowrider vehicle isn’t just a technological innovation; it’s a culturally grounded project that aims to bridge the gap between traditional automotive customization and the future of transportation.

The Cultural Significance of Lowriders

Lowriders are more than just cars; they are rolling canvases that reflect the identities, families, and histories of their owners. For many, these vehicles are heirlooms, passed down through generations, encapsulating stories and memories. They’re not merely modes of transport but symbols of community, artistry, and pride. In the very essence of their customization — the detailed paintwork, the intricate hydraulics, the polished chrome — lies a legacy of innovation and personal expression.

The Electric Revolution in the Lowrider Community

The advent of EVs is revolutionizing the automotive industry. However, there’s a valid concern within the lowrider community about being left behind in this shift. Jaime Lemus’s project, inspired by conversations with figures like Savala Rodriguez, is a proactive step towards ensuring that this doesn’t happen. By creating an electric lowrider, the project not only keeps the community at the forefront of automotive technology but also pays homage to the spirit of customization that defines lowriding.

Job Opportunities and Skill Development

The electrification of lowriders opens up a spectrum of job opportunities. It requires a blend of traditional automotive skills and modern technology, creating roles for digital technicians who can code and operate laptops as well as for those skilled in bodywork, welding, and the mechanical aspects of car modification. This unique combination of skills can generate job opportunities that honor the past while looking to the future.

Educational Pathways and Training

To equip individuals with these hybrid skills, the EV Lowrider project includes working with SAVA, Sacramento Academic and Vocational Academy, developing a curriculum focused on EV retrofitting. This program is not just about job training; it’s about creating a pathway for young enthusiasts and existing professionals to adapt to new technologies while keeping the essence of the lowrider culture intact. It also opens doors for those who may not be interested in traditional four-year college degrees, providing an alternative route to gainful employment and entrepreneurship.

Community Empowerment and Inclusion

One of the most compelling aspects of this initiative is its potential to empower communities. By involving local business owners, such as those on Franklin Boulevard with auto body shops, the project ensures that the economic benefits of this technological transition are distributed within the community. Furthermore, the project could help dismantle the stigma often associated with government programs, demonstrating a tangible benefit to engaging with such initiatives.

Intergenerational Collaboration

The project is also an exercise in intergenerational collaboration. The experience and wisdom of older car modifiers blend with the tech-savvy insights of the younger generation, creating a learning environment that is both dynamic and inclusive. This ensures that the legacy knowledge within the community is not lost but is instead enriched with new technological perspectives.

Future Prospects and Community Decisions

The decision on which vehicles to electrify next is community-driven, emphasizing a democratic approach to technological advancement. Whether it’s a classic truck, a luxurious sedan, or an iconic hot rod, the community’s input is paramount. This process not only fosters community engagement but also ensures that the vehicles represent the people they serve.

The electrification of lowriders is not just a project about cars; it’s about respecting tradition while embracing innovation. It’s about creating jobs, building skills, and ensuring that a vibrant culture continues to thrive in an electric future. As this initiative unfolds, it promises to serve as a blueprint for how communities can navigate technological change without losing the essence of their cultural heritage.

John Selep’s recognition as Innovation Leader of the Year at the Nov. 2 Awards, showcasing his impactful contributions to agtech and notable achievements in establishing AgStart and fostering agtech incubators nationwide.

Congratulations to our colleague, John Selep!

At the Nov. 2 Innovation Awards ceremony, a very special award was given to John Selep, President of AgStart, as the Innovation Leader of the Year. AgStart is a sister company to CleanStart, having both been under the umbrella of SARTA prior to 2015. John has done a remarkable job in establishing an office and full-featured wet lab in `13,000 square feet of space in Woodland. He also organized similar agtech incubators across the country into a powerful network, as well as landing generous sponsorships from leading ag tech companies. This award was well-deserved. Good work, John!

Uncover the success stories of XeroHome and Origin Materials in the 2023 Innovation Awards. From AI-driven home recommendations to revolutionary wood-waste chemicals, witness the future of sustainability and technology unfold.

Congratulations to Award Winners XeroHome and Origin Materials!

Mudit Saxena and his team received the 2023 Sustainability Innovation Award from the Sacramento Business Journal on Nov. 2. Their innovation XeroHome uses AI to make custom recommendations for individual homes using public data and puts it in an accessible form that homeowners can easily access. This eliminates the need for house-by-house energy audits and adds information on incentives and financing available. You can learn more about XeroHome at our upcoming Spotlight Pitch Night on November 16 at the Carlsen Center. They will be making a 10 minute pitch and answering questions. Sign up to come this event if you haven’t already done so.

At the same event, long-time regional clean tech community member Origin Materials received the Innovation Longevity Award. Origin had its start back in 2002 as Micromidas and renamed itself Origin Materials in 2008. Now they have opened a $130 million production facility in Ontario, Canada, and are preparing to construct a $1.6 billion plant in Louisiana soon. Origin makes industrial chemicals from wood waste that replace those from petroleum. They have a number of big-name backers including PepsiCo, Nestle, Danone, and Mitsubishi Group, with more to be added. It has been quite a journey for the team, and demonstrated their persistence and grit—contributing to their award-winning longevity.
This year there were a much larger number of awards handed out for innovation from many sectors—16 in all. It was a very inspiring event. You can read about all the Innovation Awards in the Nov. 3-9 edition of Sacramento Inno, a free publication of the Sacramento Business Journal. Take a special look at customer- and environment-friendly Quick Quack Car Wash, and Oobli drinks sweetened with a protein not a carbohydrate.

CleanStart’s recent discussion about the CalTestBed Opportunity offers an exciting opportunity for clean energy entrepreneurs and innovators. In this blog post, we’ll delve into the key points covered during the discussion and why it matters.

CalTestBed: Accelerating Clean Energy Innovation

Apply for CalTestBed Here

The discussion, hosted by Thomas Hall, the Executive Director of CleanStart, featured Rachel Yu, Senior Program Manager at CalTestBed. The primary focus was on CalTestBed, a voucher and commercialization program designed to support clean energy entrepreneurs in California.

Key Takeaways:

1. Introduction to CalTestBed: CalTestBed is a vital part of the California Clean Energy Fund (CalCEF) ecosystem. It provides financial support, specifically testing vouchers worth up to $300,000, to companies and individuals looking to validate their clean energy technologies.

2. Program Eligibility: To be eligible for CalTestBed, applicants must align with the program’s goals of benefiting California ratepayers. Prototypes should fall within Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) 5 to 7, and they should have a hardware component.

3. Supported Technology Types: CalTestBed supports a wide range of clean energy technologies, including building technologies, energy efficiency, energy storage, grid technologies, industry and agriculture, IoT, material-based renewables, transportation, and water technologies.

4. Application Process: The application window for CalTestBed opens on October 27th and closes on November 22nd. Applicants go through a screening process for eligibility and are then scored by technical reviewers based on innovation, feasibility, scalability, and market potential.

5. Networking and Support: Participants in the program gain access to a network of technical experts, opportunities to present to industry partners, and additional funding opportunities. They can also access the New Energy Nexus global community and network.

6. Success Stories: CalTestBed has successfully supported numerous clean energy companies in increasing their TRL levels and securing additional funding. It’s a valuable resource for companies looking to bridge the gap between technology development and commercialization.

Looking Ahead: CalTestBed’s Fourth Cohort

As CalTestBed embarks on its fourth cohort, there’s excitement about what lies ahead. The program is evolving, with plans for in-person symposiums and expanded support. Entrepreneurs, especially those from underrepresented communities and regions like the Central Valley, are encouraged to explore this opportunity.

Action Steps:

1. Apply for CalTestBed: The application window opens on October 27th and closes on November 22nd. Visit the CalTestBed website to get started and access the application materials.

2. Prepare: Your Application: Ensure your application aligns with the program’s eligibility criteria and clearly addresses innovation, feasibility, scalability, and market potential. Avoid overlooking the importance of how your technology benefits California ratepayers.

3. Engage: with CleanStart: CleanStart can provide guidance and support throughout the application process. Reach out to them for insights and assistance.

Conclusion:

CalTestBed presents a remarkable opportunity for clean energy entrepreneurs in California. It not only offers financial support for testing but also opens doors to a network of experts and potential future funding. As clean energy innovation continues to drive progress toward a sustainable future, programs like CalTestBed play a crucial role in propelling these innovations from the lab to the market. Don’t miss your chance to be a part of this exciting journey. Apply, innovate, and accelerate with CalTestBed.

Watch the full discussion here.

Hear From Our Best!

Join us for an unforgettable evening at our upcoming “Spotlight Investor Pitch Night,” coinciding with Global Entrepreneurship Week. It’s happening on Thursday, November 16th, from 6:00 PM to 8:00 PM at the Carlsen Center.

Unveiling Four Companies with Compelling Stories

We’re thrilled to introduce you to four worthy companies actively seeking investment and demonstrating remarkable market traction. This event is your chance to engage with these successful innovators on the verge of rapid growth, having strategically mitigated their risks. Don’t miss this opportunity to hear about their potentially game-changing innovations.

Meet the Innovators:

XeroHome – Witness cutting-edge AI technology that customizes clean energy recommendations for homeowners without the need for on-site visits or labor-intensive audits. With nationwide utility endorsements, this is a big leap in the world of sustainable energy.

LiCAP Technologies – Explore a breakthrough in battery production that is more cost-effective, environmentally friendly, and power-boosting. Battery manufacturers are eagerly awaiting this high-speed manufacturing solution to revolutionize the industry.

AscentOs – Be captivated by software designed to streamline the process of selling solar and storage systems, reducing installation costs for homeowners and small businesses. Early users are raving about this game-changing solution.

JAPA – Say goodbye to the hassle of searching for parking spots. JAPA’s innovative sensor technology and user-friendly app are already winning the hearts of major hospitals, ensuring you never waste time or fuel looking for a parking space again.

Engage and Learn:

Each company will have just 10 minutes to present their visionary ideas, followed by an engaging Q&A session with our panel of five industry experts. Then, the floor opens for questions from the audience.

Venue:

The event will take place at the Carlsen Center, located at Sac State. As you network and mingle, enjoy a selection of drinks and light refreshments. Don’t miss this unique opportunity to be amazed and inspired by these incredible companies as they take their game to the next level. Be a part of something truly special – join us on November 16th!

Mark your calendar, and reserve your spot now!

In the clean energy transition, the toughest challenges are in moving the transportation sector away from petroleum fuels, and within that the hardest nut to crack is likely to be making heavy duty trucks switch to zero emission vehicles.  This has been one of our favorite topics in looking at potential business opportunities for entrepreneurs.  See our recent internal discussions and our last blog on charging.

We tackled the topic again in our MeetUp on Nov. 2.  We had presentations from Tim Taylor, Vice President and Co-director of the Sacramento Clean Cities Coalition, and Orville Thomas, the incoming CEO of the California Mobility Center.  They stimulated a lively discussion.  You can view the entire session in our video on YouTube. You can also view the highlight version.

Here were some of the key points:

1. Through clever load management and system optimization we can squeeze more out of the existing electrical system to feed EVs, through things like bi-directional charging, managing the load from chargers so that they do not exceed available supplies, and putting battery-buffers on chargers.  (We have seen the last approach from companies like FreeWire and ElectricFish).
2. But any significant conversion of the transportation to EVs will overwhelm the available supply.  On an energy consumption basis, the transportation sector now based on fuels is more than twice the size of the electrical system.  At some point, dramatic additions to the electricity supply will be needed.
3. The choices seem to be to add to the general supply by adding more carbon-neutral power generation and transmission assets, put generation adjacent to the locations where EV charging demand is the greatest (especially for heavy duty vehicles) in the form of microgrids, or do more with on-board hydrogen zero emissions power generators, with the need to add to hydrogen production and distribution assets.

1. The recent proposed rule from CARB would create a gradual increase in the conversion of heavy-duty trucks to zero emissions by 2042, but it is still aggressive.  A significant concession is that it would apply only to fleets of more than 50 vehicles and only after existing vehicles have reached their lifetime.  With so many tractors owned by individuals or in small fleets, the rule would affect a much smaller number of trucks.  But the number affected is still huge.
2. If the microgrid approach is used for heavy-duty charging stations, the question remains as to what will power it.  Given the concentration of demand at such sites, it is unlikely that solar or wind alone will be sufficient.  Some form of engine-generator will likely be required and that raises the question of what fuel it will use.  The politics seem to be against using any carbon-containing fuel even if it is a renewable fuel that could be shown to be carbon neutral.  It would also need to have minimal NOx emissions.  There are some big engines that would meet this need but they are expensive.  Locating them so the microgrid could be used for other purposes, like powering a nearby industrial facility, may reduce the sting of the cost, but raise issues of conflict with the local utility.  There may be ways to get the utilities on-side and make them part of the solution.  We also discussed small scale nuclear plants as an option.
3. The whole range of challenges may be part of the new mission of the California Mobility Center.  Orville Thomas is willing to widen the scope of what the CMC could do, including a broader definition of “mobility” to include more options for disadvantaged communities.
4. He is pretty certain that the CMC will be moving on or near the Sac State campus and be administered by the university.  His vision includes a new $500 million complex on campus near Ramona Road, including a new building for the College of Engineering and Computer Science.  At this point, there is no funding for such a vision, but he thought there were good prospects and a lot of enthusiasm to get it done.
5. Both presenters emphasized the need for a larger trained workforce to address all the challenges.  Orville mentioned the possibility of an advanced degree program in power for the mobility sector.

This was a very rich discussion, and it highlights a lot of opportunities for innovation and new businesses.  We will be carrying on this whole discussion in future MeetUps and on our Perspectives webcasts.  Keep an eye out for future announcements from CleanStart.

Does this discussion give you a good business idea you would like to explore?  Set up a call with us and we will help you.

Big Charging Station for Electric Trucks Near Sacramento Airport

$34 USDOT million grant, 25 MW, Charge big rig in 20-50 minutes, developed by WattEV