Wind Harvest Passes Big Milestone

Wind Harvest Passes Big Milestone

Patience, persistence, and optimism are paying off. Wind Harvest has managed to get to Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 7 with its vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT) technology. That means that they have tested a full-scale prototype in commercial conditions. That testing was done at a UL Advanced Wind Turbine Testing Facility in North Texas where the near-ground winds are very turbulent, just the sort of challenging conditions the Wind Harvester are designed to exploit. 

The prototype provided the data to validate the company’s proprietary “aeroelastic” engineering models that originally were developed by Sandia National Labs. In the process, the company engineering team was able to do a serious redesign—which has dropped the manufacturing and installation costs and increased the durability of the blades, mast, and struts. It also led them to patent a number of critical new parts, patents which themselves may be of great value. 

Now they are getting ready for full third-party certification of their new unit in a longer test at that same facility. That will advance them through TRL 8. They hope to get that started by the middle of the year. Then the next challenge is financing ten or more turbines in different demonstration projects to collect 1-2 years of performance data that banks need to provide project loans to their customers’ wind farm projects. They need $10 million in new investment to get all this done. They are just as clever in raising money as they have been in continuously improving their engineering designs. 

There is a lot to learn from their experience. CEO Kevin Wolf has been officially a part of the company for nearly 25 years, building on work that was started by others in the 1980s. That is a testament to persistence, patience, and optimism about solving the next problem. But Kevin is convinced it will all be worthwhile. He sees the potential for installing hundreds of thousands of MW of vertical axis wind turbines that use their existing and future patents. 

Wind Harvester Model 4.0

50-75 kW rated electrical power

25 mph rated wind speed

11 mph cut-in/56 mph cut-out wind speeds

122 – 310 MWh of Annual Energy Production

Rotor Height: 13 meters

Rotor Diameter: 13 meters

Swept area: 169 m2

3 Blades/ 6 arms

Base tower height: 8–20 meters

You may recall that Wind Harvest is pursuing a small 50-75 kW wind turbine that can handle the turbulent winds near ground level—a resource which the company has documented has huge potential—and installing thousands of them. The idea is to install these short turbines, tightly spaced (3’ apart) under and between the big horizontal axis wind turbines already in wind farms in California and around the globe. The idea is to be able to harvest more of the world’s best

wind resources and reduce the need to convert more land into wind farms. When existing wind farms add short VAWTs to increase their capacity factors, new transmission lines are not needed to move the extra energy to the grid. 

The company was very fortunate in having some patient early investors who put in over $16 million to move the company forward. However, getting the next ten million is going to require some clever ideas. Kevin talked to over 100 VCs in the last few years and has become convinced that they were not going to be a source of investment until his machines were fully tested, validated and bankable. There have been too many failed investments in past clean energy technology companies that were not well vetted That is why he has been so focused on getting past TRL 8 and 9. 

Kevin and the company have found some interesting ways to use crowdfunding to generate money for the testing and redesign steps, but this is only a small amount at a time. He has just closed a round and is about to launch another one via netcapital.com to secure the money to complete TRL 8 and have a turbine ready for sale. Then he wants to raise much more to develop the pioneer demonstration projects to get the company into revenue and the proof points for TRL 9. Facing skeptics still among the big wind farms, his likely locations for this first project may be military bases, islands, and special situations where fear of impacts on the tall turbines will not be such an obstacle. 

His longer-term vision is not to be a project developer, but rather for Wind Harvest to license their patents to bigger players and collect royalties. However, to get to that point, the company likely needs to do more project development itself. Fortunately, the payment of tax credits upfront provided in the IRA, coupled with accelerated depreciation means that there should be a pool of investment available from those with a big tax bill they want to offset, getting them over the hurdle of the high cost of initial units. 

Over time, the company sees the price dropping rapidly with volume. The units are made of simple, mass-producible components that can be delivered in kit form. The fully installed costs for small 1-2 MW-scale projects should be less than $3500/kW, with prospects to drop that cost another 40% with time and volume. 

Kevin’s parting words were “This has been a longer, more difficult slog than we ever thought.” Many cleantech startups can say the same. But in the case of Wind Harvest, the team never gave up and found ways to keep going and actually benefit from the setbacks. He notes, “What we learned has resulted in a breakthrough technology to make use of a massive, untapped renewable energy resource”.

Thomas Hall

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Gary Simon is the Chair of CleanStart’s Board. A seasoned energy executive and entrepreneur with 45 years of experience in business, government, and non-profits.

CleanStart Sponsors

Weintraub | TobinBlueTech Valley, Revrnt, River City Bank

Moss AdamsPowerSoft.biz, Greenberg Traurig, California Mobility Center

Prediction Results 2023

Prediction Results 2023

2023 Predictions Recap

Last year we looked to make bolder predictions, many around falling prices. Well, some predictions were right, others were wrong.  There was good news from Rivian and vigorous growth in battery deployment, keeping prices high.  The PPA price wars came to an end as demand for clean energy rose and supply chains increased costs. Overall we are saying we went 4 for 10.  

You can read the prediction post here.

There will be no Level 3 Energy Emergency Alerts in California this year.

There were no Stage 3 alerts this year.  There were no Stage 2 and only one Stage 1 alerts this year (to date).  So…bullseye! 

Lithium prices will decline and finish the year below $40,000 per MT.  

Bingo!  Lithium carbonate plunged since the beginning of the year, now sitting under $20,000 per MT.  That’s a drop of 73%.  At the same time, cobalt prices dropped 36%.  Cobalt is another common ingredient in lithium-ion batteries.  Interestingly, nickel prices dropped 42% to $17,421/ton, so lithium is not much more expensive than a common commodity metal also used in batteries.  For comparison, copper is priced at about $8,265/ton (up from its low of $1,300/MT  or $0.63/lb 25 years ago).  Some analysts forecast the price of lithium will double in 2024, but we are skeptical of such a big hike in the face of several large new mines opening up.  

 

Private, pulsed-fusion company Helion will announce reaching significant milestones.  

Nope.  Helion did not announce reaching any new technological milestones that would trigger investors to put in more money.  However, they did sign an agreement with Microsoft to begin providing 50 MW of power by 2028.  Because the agreement is made through Constellation Energy, we guess that if the plant is not ready by 2028, Constellation will provide zero carbon power to Microsoft in another way.  However, if HeLion meets the 2028 deadline, it will likely beat the Small Modular Reactor projects to the finish line in a test of fusion vs. fission.  The slipping deadline with the SMRs has recently been in the news as the leading SMR developer NuScale has had to suspend its pioneer project in Idaho because its intended power purchasers were not willing to pay the price for the power that would make the project viable, even with heavy subsidies from the DOE. In addition, in 2023 both HeLion and our second contender, HB 11 Energy, received small contracts from DOE to continue their work.  A third challenger of note in this race is TAE Technologies in Southern California aiming at the same Proton-Boron fusion reaction, but using pulsed accelerator beams to drive the reaction instead of pulsed lasers.

Regardless of the slower-than-expected advances with any of these technologies, the opportunity they offer to bypass the building of more fission reactors with their enormous waste disposal issues makes them important.  We still like the underdogs.

Power Purchase Agreement pricing on average for either solar or wind will not exceed $50/MWh.  

Oops.  Both solar and wind projects broke the $50 barrier.  We underestimated the impact of higher inflation and the demand pressure on 3Q23 blended prices solar and wind prices.  According to recent surveys by Level Ten Energy,  these blended prices rose to $54.90/MWh, with wind at about $57.50/MWh and solar at about $51/MWh.   It looks like they will continue to rise into 2024.  

 

Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit prices will increase but stay below $70 for the year.  

Wrong.  Prices drifted up to near $90/ton but then came back under $75.   The average for the full year is not yet available, but it looks like it will be near $80. At the same time, the price of a carbon credit in ARB’s Cap and Trade market rose to $39/ton.  Selling credits is becoming more lucrative, with the LCFS credits about double the value of the cap-and-trade variety.  .[We can include the following chart if useful.]

Fewer than 10,000 Level 2 Charging Stations will be installed in 2023 in California.  

 

Sadly, this one was right. Q4 2022 had 78500 Shared and Private Level 2s installed. As of September 12, 2023 (The CEC’s last update) there are 83,597 Shared and Private Level 2s. Just over 5000 were installed. We will keep our eyes open if a more recent update comes out. On a positive note, California now has over 10,000 DC Fast Chargers. Gary and Thomas will have to revisit their debate between level 2 and DC Fast Charging.

 

Two EV startup companies will be acquired, one by a non-OEM.

Complete miss. We reached out of the box on this one predicting consolidation. We thought lagging OEMs would pick up a public company. OEMs like Mercedes have record years selling electric vehicles. Others like Toyota heavily invested in supply chains needed for Electric Vehicles. None have acquired one of the listed companies. But it could happen… Only Rivian showed a significant improvement in its market cap.

 

 

Approx Market Cap ($)

 

Company we predicted

Last Year

Around Now

Acquired

Arrival SA

<150M

25M

No

Electra Meccanica Vehicles Corp

70M

44M

No

Rivian

17B

21.7B

No

Lucid Group Inc.

11B

11B

No

Fisker Inc

2B

555M

No

Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc

<150M

15M

No

Canoo Inc

<500M

205M

No

Nikola Corp

1B

1B

No

 

 

The Sacramento Region will attract a net zero fuel investment of>$50 Million.

It happened! Right before we published, Infinium announced $75 Million from Breakthrough Energy Ventures! 

Rivian struggles to make Amazon 10,000 Deliveries

Rivian did something none of the similar EV startups did. Beat predictions. In October, they announced Amazon had 10,000 Rivian delivery vans in service. With their exclusive Amazon deal ending, they have already signed additional fleet deals. Additionally, they have continually upped delivery predictions and through Q3 have sold more than double the Trucks and Vans as Ford and is the only company in our EV acquisition prediction to increase its market cap significantly.

Installed storage capacity in the US will double.  

Close one.  Wood Mackenzie estimates that total installed storage capacity in the US will be 24.6 GWh in 2023, a tiny bit below a doubling from 13.4 GWh.  However, we were correct that the original forecast of 30.3 GWh of storage capacity would turn out to be too high. 

In California in October, the Governor issued a statement that the state now had over 6600 MW of installed battery capacity. a tenfold increase in five years,  That would also mean it had about 16.2 GWh energy storage capacity.

The cost of an electric vehicle battery pack will fall below $140/kWh.

Not sure.  The DOE has not published its new estimates for 2023 yet.  A Goldman Sachs report provides information that indicates a modest decline in 2023 (but not below $140/kWh), with a more significant decline coming in 2024 as the lower prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel impact costs.

 

Thomas Hall

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Thomas is the Executive Director of CleanStart. Thomas has a strong background in supporting small businesses, leadership, financial management and is proficient in working with nonprofits. He has a BS in Finance and a BA in Economics from California State University, Chico. Thomas has a passion for sustainability and a commitment to supporting non-profits in the region.

Sponsors

SMUD
CMC
RiverCity Bank

Weintraub | Tobin, Revrnt, Moss Adams, PowerSoft.biz, Greenberg Traurig

Global Entrepreneurship Week Success

Global Entrepreneurship Week Success

The Carlsen Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship at Sacramento State recently led the Global Entrepreneurship Week (GEW) activities for the fifth year, marking its significant role in regional economic growth. During the Sacramento Entrepreneurial State of the Union, Clair Whitmer of the California Office of the Small Business Advocate (CalOSBA) announced a substantial $250,000 state grant awarded to the Center. This grant is part of the Accelerate California: Inclusive Innovation Hub initiative, which supports organizations offering entrepreneurial training, coaching, and resources.

Additionally, CleanStart hosted a pitch competition, further enriching the entrepreneurial spirit of the event and providing a platform for emerging businesses to showcase their innovations. This combination of state support, community engagement, and competitive platforms like CleanStart’s pitch competition underscores the dynamic entrepreneurial landscape in the Sacramento region.

The GEW, a global initiative since 2008, involves organizations from over 200 countries hosting events attended by millions. At Sacramento State, President Luke Wood highlighted the Carlsen Center’s vital role in fostering an entrepreneurial culture and its impact on students and the community.

Thomas Hall

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Thomas is the Executive Director of CleanStart. Thomas has a strong background in supporting small businesses, leadership, financial management and is proficient in working with nonprofits. He has a BS in Finance and a BA in Economics from California State University, Chico. Thomas has a passion for sustainability and a commitment to supporting non-profits in the region.

Sponsors

SMUD
CMC
RiverCity Bank

Weintraub | Tobin, Revrnt, Moss Adams, PowerSoft.biz, Greenberg Traurig

Spotlight Pitch Event Highlights

Spotlight Pitch Event Highlights

We had a great Spotlight Pitch event at the Carlsen Center on November 16 (and a big thanks to the crew At the Center for hosting us).  We heard from 5 investment-ready companies, all with customers, revenue, and product-market fit.  All were seeking significant investment.  Having five such companies in our clean tech hub is itself an important milestone of the progress being made in advancing cleantech products to market here. Each presenter received helpful feedback and suggestions from a panel of five investors and experts.  Everybody learned a lot and helped out.  But don’t take our word for it.  Watch our highlights clip

To learn how to advance your startup to do this kind of effective pitch, sign up for our next Clean Tech CEO Crash Course starting in early January.  But hurry—seats are going fast! XeroHome

         XeroHome—has an AI-based product for making tailored recommendations to homeowners on what clean energy investments to make, all without the need for site visits and labor-intensive audits.  Now multiple utilities across the country are using this software. And XeroHome was recently  awarded the Sustainability Innovator of the Year.LiCAP

         LiCAP Technologies—has a better way to make batteries.  It is less expensive, it requires fewer steps, it avoids using toxic solvents, it creates thinner electrodes, it boosts the energy and power density, and extends cycle life.

Ascent

         AscentOS—has developed software to optimize and simplify the process of selling solar and storage systems to homeowners and small businesses, getting the required permits, and scheduling the crews and materials, all to cut the cost of installations.  It is turning installers into powerhouses.

         JAPA—has the solution to avoid wasting time and fuel in trying to find a parking space by installing JAPAsensors and using software to tell drivers where empty spots are.  They have some big hospitals as anchor customers who love the app.

         Thermeshade—has the “best window shade to control heat”, because it is nearly transparent and people leaveThermeShade them pulled down.  In contrast, most others cut off the view through the window, so people roll them up and make them ineffective.   

Thomas Hall

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Gary Simon is the Chair of CleanStart’s Board. A seasoned energy executive and entrepreneur with 45 years of experience in business, government, and non-profits.

CleanStart Sponsors

Weintraub | TobinBlueTech Valley, Revrnt, River City Bank

Moss AdamsPowerSoft.biz, Greenberg Traurig, California Mobility Center